Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34564730›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2022

Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries.

José Manuel Aburto, Jonas Schöley, Ilya Kashnitsky, Luyin Zhang, Charles Rahal, Trifon I Missov, Melinda C Mills, Jennifer B Dowd, Ridhi Kashyap

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 174 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
174citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

174 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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114 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

José Manuel AburtoLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2926-6879
Jonas SchöleyInterdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0002-3340-8518
Ilya KashnitskyInterdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0003-1835-8687
Luyin ZhangLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8337-8791
Charles RahalLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1764-2697
Trifon I MissovInterdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0002-7312-4261
Melinda C MillsLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1704-0001
Jennifer B DowdLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2006-5656
Ridhi KashyapLeverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0615-2868

Funding

British Academy's Newton International Fellowship NIFBA19/190679European Research Council 835079John Fell Fund 0009182Leverhulme Trust Large CentreROCKWOOL Foundation's Excess Deaths
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundVariations in the age patterns and magnitudes of excess deaths, as well as differences in population sizes and age structures, make cross-national comparisons of the cumulative mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic challenging. Life expectancy is a widely used indicator that provides a clear and cross-nationally comparable picture of the population-level impacts of the pandemic on mortality.

methodsLife tables by sex were calculated for 29 countries, including most European countries, Chile and the USA, for 2015-2020. Life expectancy at birth and at age 60 years for 2020 were contextualized against recent trends between 2015 and 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we examined which specific age groups contributed to reductions in life expectancy in 2020 and to what extent reductions were attributable to official COVID-19 deaths.

resultsLife expectancy at birth declined from 2019 to 2020 in 27 out of 29 countries. Males in the USA and Lithuania experienced the largest losses in life expectancy at birth during 2020 (2.2 and 1.7 years, respectively), but reductions of more than an entire year were documented in 11 countries for males and 8 among females. Reductions were mostly attributable to increased mortality above age 60 years and to official COVID-19 deaths.

conclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant mortality increases in 2020 of a magnitude not witnessed since World War II in Western Europe or the breakup of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe. Females from 15 countries and males from 10 ended up with lower life expectancy at birth in 2020 than in 2015.

Indexed as

COVID-19EuropeFemaleHumansInfant, NewbornLife ExpectancyMaleMiddle AgedMortalityPandemicsResearch DesignSARS-CoV-2COVID-19demographylife expectancymortality

Identifiers

PMID34564730
PMCPMC8500096

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.