Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34563867›Full record

ArticleSocial science & medicine (1982)2021

Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: The impact of government policy in England.

Karyn Morrissey, Fiona Spooner, James Salter, Gavin Shaddick

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Social science & medicine (1982), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Karyn MorrisseyDTU Management, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Demark; European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, UK; Alan Turing Institute, London, UK. Electronic address: kamorr@dtu.dk.
Fiona SpoonerEuropean Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, UK. Electronic address: F.Spooner@exeter.ac.uk.
James SalterMathematics, School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, UK; Joint Centre for Excellence in Environmental Intelligence, Exeter, UK. Electronic address: J.M.Salter@exeter.ac.uk.
Gavin ShaddickMathematics, School of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, UK; Joint Centre for Excellence in Environmental Intelligence, Exeter, UK; Alan Turing Institute, London, UK. Electronic address: g.shaddick@exeter.ac.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This paper aims to understand the relationship between area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases in England in response to government policy throughout 2020. The response variable is monthly reported COVID-19 cases at the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level by Public Health England, with Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), ethnicity (percentage of the population across 5 ethnicity categories) and the percentage of the population older than 70 years old and time as predictors. A GEE population-averaged panel-data model was employed to model trends in monthly COVID-19 cases with the population of each MSOA included as the exposure variable. Area level deprivation is significantly associated with COVID-19 cases from March 2020; however, this relationship is reversed in December 2020. Follow up analysis found that this reversal was maintained when controlling for the novel COVID-19 variant outbreak in the South East of England. This analysis indicates that changes in the role of deprivation and monthly reported COVID-19 over time cases may be linked to two government policies: (1) the premature easing of national restrictions in July 2020 when cases were still high in the most deprived areas in England and (2) the introduction of a regional tiered system in October predominantly in the North of England. The analysis adds to the evidence showing that deprivation is a key driver of COVID-19 outcomes and highlights the unintended negative impact of government policy.

Indexed as

COVID-19AgedEnglandGovernmentHumansPolicySARS-CoV-2COVID-19 casesDeprivationEnglandGovernment policyPanel data analysis

Identifiers

PMID34563867
PMCPMC8459718

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.