The effect of high temperatures on risk of hospitalization in northern Vietnam.

Vietnam is one Southeast Asian country most vulnerable to climate change. By the end of the twenty-first century, temperature could rise above 5°C across Vietnam according to the IPCC highest emission pathway scenario. However, research on the temperature-health effects from the geographically diverse sub-tropical northern region of Vietnam is limited making location specific health system preparedness difficult. This study examines the elevated temperature-hospitalization relationship for the seven provinces in northern Vietnam by using generalized linear and distributed lag models. A random-effect meta-analysis was used to estimate the pooled temperature hospitalizations risks for all causes, and for infectious, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases. The pooled estimates show a significant effect of high temperature on hospitalizations for the same day (lag 0), when a 1°C increase in temperature above 24°C was significantly associated with 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9-1.4%) increased risk for all-cause hospital admissions, 2.4% (95% CI, 1.9-2.9%) increased risk for infectious disease admissions, 0.5% (95% CI, 0.1-0.9%) increased risk for cardiovascular disease admissions, and 1.3% (95% CI, 0.9-1.6%) increased risk for respiratory disease admissions. This research adds to the scant evidence examining heat and health morbidity effects in sub-tropical climates and has important implications for better understanding and preparing for the future impacts of climate change related temperature on Vietnam residents.