Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34557845›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2021

Excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes by region, neighbourhood deprivation level and place of death during the first 30 weeks of the pandemic in England and Wales: A retrospective registry study.

Evangelos Kontopantelis, Mamas A Mamas, Roger T Webb, Ana Castro, Martin K Rutter, Chris P Gale, Darren M Ashcroft, Matthias Pierce, Kathryn M Abel, Gareth Price and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
33citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

33 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  14. Has COVID-19 increased inequality in mortality by income in the Netherlands?Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Evangelos KontopantelisDivision of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
Mamas A MamasDivision of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
Roger T WebbCentre for Mental Health & Safety, Division of Psychology & Mental Health, University of Manchester and Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre (MAHSC), England, United Kingdom.
Ana CastroDepartment of Health Sciences, University of York, England, United Kingdom.
Martin K RutterDivision of Diabetes, Endocrinology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
Chris P GaleLeeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, England, United Kingdom.
Darren M AshcroftNIHR School for Primary Care Research, University of Oxford, Oxford, England, United Kingdom.
Matthias PierceCentre for Women's Mental Health, Division of Psychology and Mental Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
Kathryn M AbelCentre for Women's Mental Health, Division of Psychology and Mental Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
Gareth PriceManchester Cancer Research Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, University of Manchester, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
Corinne Faivre-FinnManchester Cancer Research Centre, The Christie NHS Foundation Trust, University of Manchester, Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
Harriette G C Van SpallDepartment of Medicine and Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
Michelle M GrahamDivision of Cardiology, University of Alberta and Mazankowski Alberta Heart Institute, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Marcello MorcianoNIHR School for Primary Care Research, University of Oxford, Oxford, England, United Kingdom.
Glen P MartinDivision of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9PL Manchester, England, United Kingdom.
Tim DoranDepartment of Health Sciences, University of York, England, United Kingdom.

Funding

Cancer Research UK 28701
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundExcess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with those expected from historical trends have been unequally distributed, both geographically and socioeconomically. Not all excess deaths have been directly related to COVID-19 infection. We investigated geographical and socioeconomic patterns in excess deaths for major groups of underlying causes during the pandemic.

methodsWeekly mortality data from 27/12/2014 to 2/10/2020 for England and Wales were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Negative binomial regressions were used to model death counts based on pre-pandemic trends for deaths caused directly by COVID-19 (and other respiratory causes) and those caused indirectly by it (cardiovascular disease or diabetes, cancers, and all other indirect causes) over the first 30 weeks of the pandemic (7/3/2020-2/10/2020).

findingsThere were 62,321 (95% CI: 58,849 to 65,793) excess deaths in England and Wales in the first 30 weeks of the pandemic. Of these, 46,221 (95% CI: 45,439 to 47,003) were attributable to respiratory causes, including COVID-19, and 16,100 (95% CI: 13,410 to 18,790) to other causes. Rates of all-cause excess mortality ranged from 78 per 100,000 in the South West of England and in Wales to 130 per 100,000 in the West Midlands; and from 93 per 100,000 in the most affluent fifth of areas to 124 per 100,000 in the most deprived. The most deprived areas had the highest rates of death attributable to COVID-19 and other indirect deaths, but there was no socioeconomic gradient for excess deaths from cardiovascular disease/diabetes and cancer.

interpretationDuring the first 30 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic there was significant geographic and socioeconomic variation in excess deaths for respiratory causes, but not for cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer. Pandemic recovery plans, including vaccination programmes, should take account of individual characteristics including health, socioeconomic status and place of residence.

fundingNone.

Indexed as

Causes of deathCOVID-19DeprivationMortality

Identifiers

PMID34557845
PMCPMC8454637

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.