SynthesisClinical interventions in aging2021
Performance of Prognostic Risk Scores in Elderly Chinese Patients with Heart Failure.
Synthesis in Clinical interventions in aging, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Performance of the MAGGIC Score in Individuals with Heart Failure: Validation in a Brazilian Population.Arquivos brasileiros de cardiologia · 2026Article
- Predicting survival in patients with heart failure aged 80 years and older.ESC heart failure · 2026Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Left Ventricular Assist Device for Transplant-Ineligible Patients.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Prediction models and risk scores in different types of heart failure: a review.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Review
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeElderly heart failure (HF) patients have different clinical characteristics and poorer prognosis compared with younger patients. Prognostic risk scores for HF have not been validated well in elderly patients. We aimed to validate the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score in an elderly Chinese HF cohort. PATIENTS AND
methodsThis retrospective study enrolled 675 elderly HF patients (age≥70 years) discharged from our hospital between 2012 and 2017. The performance of the two risk scores was evaluated in terms of discrimination, using receiver-operating characteristic analysis, and calibration using a calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test. Absolute risk reclassification was used to compare the two scores.
resultsDuring the mean follow-up time of 32.6 months, 193 patients (28.6%) died, and 1-year mortality was 10.5%. The predicted median 1-year mortality was 8% for the SHFM and 18% for the MAGGIC score. A Kaplan-Meier survival curve demonstrated that event rates of all-cause mortality significantly increased with increasing SHFM and MAGGIC scores. The discriminatory capacity of the SHFM was greater than that of the MAGGIC score (c-statistics were 0.72 and 0.67, respectively; P = 0.05). The calibration plot for the SHFM was better than that for MAGGIC score for 1-year mortality (SHFM: H-L χ
conclusionThe SHFM performs better than MAGGIC score, having good discrimination, calibration and risk classification for the prediction of 1-year mortality in elderly Chinese HF patients.
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