ArticleNature communications2021
Development of a model-inference system for estimating epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in New York City during March 2020-August 2023.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Behavior-driven forecasts of neighborhood-level COVID-19 spread in New York City.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Genomic and epidemiological analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants isolated in Guinea: a routine sequencing implementation.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Adaptive vaccination and surveillance testing strategies for infectious diseases with diverse strain dynamics.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2025Article
- Shift in Demographic Involvement and Clinical Characteristics of COVID-19 From Wild-Type SARS-CoV-2 to the Delta Variant in the Indian Population: In Silico Analysis.Interactive journal of medical research · 2024Article
- Reconciling the efficacy and effectiveness of masking on epidemic outcomes.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Predicting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants: An artificial intelligence enabled early detection.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Development of Accurate Long-lead COVID-19 Forecast.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Quantifying the spatial spillover effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk.International journal of health geographics · 2023Article
- Rapid global spread of variants of concern of SARS-CoV-2.IJID regions · 2023Article
- Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Article
- Evaluation of Effectiveness of Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign.Emerging infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence through serological uncertainty and daily incidence.The Canadian journal of statistics = Revue canadienne de statistique · 2022Article
- Article
- Biological Properties of SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Epidemiological Impact and Clinical Consequences.Vaccines · 2022Review
- COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
To support COVID-19 pandemic planning, we develop a model-inference system to estimate epidemiological properties of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern using case and mortality data while accounting for under-ascertainment, disease seasonality, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and mass-vaccination. Applying this system to study three variants of concern, we estimate that B.1.1.7 has a 46.6% (95% CI: 32.3-54.6%) transmissibility increase but nominal immune escape from protection induced by prior wild-type infection; B.1.351 has a 32.4% (95% CI: 14.6-48.0%) transmissibility increase and 61.3% (95% CI: 42.6-85.8%) immune escape; and P.1 has a 43.3% (95% CI: 30.3-65.3%) transmissibility increase and 52.5% (95% CI: 0-75.8%) immune escape. Model simulations indicate that B.1.351 and P.1 could outcompete B.1.1.7 and lead to increased infections. Our findings highlight the importance of preventing the spread of variants of concern, via continued preventive measures, prompt mass-vaccination, continued vaccine efficacy monitoring, and possible updating of vaccine formulations to ensure high efficacy.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.