Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34552082›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape.

Warren S D Tennant, Eric Cardinale, Catherine Cêtre-Sossah, Youssouf Moutroifi, Gilles Le Godais, Davide Colombi, Simon E F Spencer, Mike J Tildesley, Matt J Keeling, Onzade Charafouddine and 3 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
0.9field-weighted citation impact, top 22% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Knowledge mapping of risk mitigation measures against vector-borne diseases.EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority · 2026
    Article
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  6. Review
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  8. Has the epidemiologic conundrum of Rift Valley fever changed?Tropical animal health and production · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 6 institutions in 3 countries.

Warren S D TennantThe Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK. Warren.Tennant@warwick.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5822-6887
Eric CardinaleCentre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UMR Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, F-97490, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France.
Catherine Cêtre-SossahCentre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, UMR Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques, et Écosystèmes, F-97490, Sainte Clotilde, La Réunion, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0869-1681
Youssouf MoutroifiVice-Présidence en charge de l'Agriculture, l'Elevage, la Pêche, l'Industrie, l'Energie et l'Artisanat, B.P. 41 Mdé, Moroni, Union of the Comoros.
Gilles Le GodaisDirection de l'Alimentation, de l'Agriculture et de la Forêt de Mayotte, Service de l'Alimentation, 97600, Mamoudzou, France.
Davide ColombiAizoon Technology Consulting, Str. del Lionetto 6, Torino, Italy.
Simon E F SpencerThe Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8375-5542
Mike J TildesleyThe Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6875-7232
Matt J KeelingThe Zeeman Institute: SBIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4639-4765
Onzade CharafouddineVice-Présidence en charge de l'Agriculture, l'Elevage, la Pêche, l'Industrie, l'Energie et l'Artisanat, B.P. 41 Mdé, Moroni, Union of the Comoros.
Vittoria ColizzaINSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (Unité Mixte de Recherche en Santé 1136), 75012, Paris, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2113-2374
W John EdmundsCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Raphaëlle MétrasINSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (Unité Mixte de Recherche en Santé 1136), 75012, Paris, France.
University of Warwick · GBCentre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement · FRInserm · FRMinistère de l'Agriculture · CILondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBMinistère de l'Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire · FR

Funding

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/T004312/1British Heart FoundationChief Scientist OfficeMedical Research Council MR/P026400/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The persistence mechanisms of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fever, at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. We developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago, accounting for island-specific environments and inter-island animal movements. By fitting our model in a Bayesian framework to 2004-2015 surveillance data, we estimated the importance of environmental drivers and animal movements on disease persistence, and tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden throughout the archipelago. Here we report that (i) the archipelago network was able to sustain viral transmission in the absence of explicit disease introduction events after early 2007, (ii) repeated outbreaks during 2004-2020 may have gone under-detected by local surveillance, and (iii) co-ordinated within-island control measures are more effective than between-island animal movement restrictions.

Indexed as

Models, TheoreticalAnimalsComorosLivestockRift Valley FeverRift Valley fever virusSeroepidemiologic StudiesZoonoses

Identifiers

PMID34552082
PMCPMC8458460
OpenAlexW3201075888

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.