ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2021
Updates to the Spectrum/AIM model for the UNAIDS 2020 HIV estimates.
Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
38 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Microalbuminuria among HIV/AIDS patients in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- Characterizing the HIV care continuum among children and adolescents with HIV in eastern and southern Africa in the era of "Universal Test and Treat": A systematic review and meta-analysis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2025Pooled it
- Investigating the effects of cytokine biomarkers on HIV incidence: a case study for individuals randomized to pre-exposure prophylaxis vs. control.Frontiers in public health · 2024Trial
- Documenting HIV service delivery and adoption of evidence-based practices in HIV care programs: A protocol for a cross-sectional survey of HIV clinics participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA).medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Drivers of Vertical HIV Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Targeted and Universal Lenacapavir Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2026Article
- Exploring Socioeconomic Factors Among Women Living with HIV in Malawi and Kenya.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2026Article
- Long-Acting Antiretroviral Therapy for Breastfeeding Women With HIV Experiencing Barriers to Adherence in Zimbabwe: Modeling Clinical Impact and Cost-effectiveness.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Identifying individual, community and country-level determinants of poor knowledge of mother-to-child transmission of HIV among women in sub-Saharan Africa: spatial and multilevel analysis.SAGE open medicine · 2026Article
- Unraveling the Intricacies: Integrated and Enhanced Surveillance and Epidemiology for HIV, Syphilis, and Related Co-Infections Under the National AIDS and STD Control Programme in India.Indian journal of community medicine : official publication of Indian Association of Preventive & Social Medicine · 2025Article
- Characterization of transmitted drug resistance among recently infected HIV-1 men who have sex with men in Hebei Province, China.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Tuberculosis Preventive Treatment for Pregnant People With HIV in South Africa: A Modeling Analysis of Clinical Benefits and Risks.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2025Article
- Impact of an optimized care model for advanced HIV disease: a non-randomized cluster study in Malawi.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Progress and challenges towards eliminating vertical transmission of HIV in India.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Article
- Outcomes After Loss to Follow-Up for Pregnant and Postpartum Women Living With HIV and Their Children in Kenya: A Prospective Cohort Study.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Awareness and willingness to use pre-exposure prophylaxis among the University of Zambia students: A cross-sectional study.Health science reports · 2024Article
- Evaluation of person-centered interventions to eliminate perinatal HIV transmission in Kisumu County, Kenya: A repeated cross-sectional study using aggregated registry data.PLoS medicine · 2024Article
- New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model.BMC public health · 2024Article
- HIV and hepatitis B, C co-infection and correlates of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Rwanda, 2021: a respondent-driven sampling, cross-sectional study.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Central auditory test performance predicts future neurocognitive function in children living with and without HIV.Scientific reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionThe Spectrum/AIM model is used by national HIV programs and UNAIDS to prepare annual estimates of key HIV indicators. This article describes key updates to paediatric and adult models for the 2021 round of HIV estimates.
methodsPotential updates to Spectrum arise due to newly available data, new analyses of existing data, and the need for new issues to be addressed. Updates are guided by experts through the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections. Changes are tested and assessed for impact before being accepted into the final model.
resultsSpectrum tracks children living with HIV by CD4% for ages 0-4 and CD4 count for ages 5-14. Data from IeDEA treatment sites have been used to map the transition from CD4% to CD4 count at age 5. Breastfeeding patterns in sub-Saharan Africa have been updated with the latest survey data and estimates of continuation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with breastfeeding have been revised based on recent studies. Model assumptions about the CD4 counts of people who drop out of ART have been revised to account for CD4 count increases while on treatment. If available, monthly data on numbers on ART can now be used to estimate the effects of COVID-19-related disruptions during 2020.
conclusionsThese changes are intended to provide more accurate estimates of HIV burden. The effects of these changes on paediatric indicators are small except in countries with new surveys that might have updated patterns of breastfeeding. Changes to the adult model have little effect on total new infections. AIDS-related deaths will be somewhat lower in countries that have data on ART drop out but might be increased by HIV care disruptions due to COVID-19. The updated model uses newly available data to improve the estimation of paediatric and adult HIV indicators.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.