ArticleBMC oral health2021
A predictive nomogram: a cross-sectional study on a simple-to-use model for screening 12-year-old children for severe caries in middle schools.
Article in BMC oral health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Risk prediction models for dental caries in children and adolescents: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ open · 2025Pooled it
- Development of a nomogram for prediction of occlusal dentin caries in Norwegian children at risk: a 36-month follow-up study.BMC oral health · 2026Article
- Development and validation of a predictive model for severe caries in 12-year-olds from resource-limited regions: a cross-sectional study in China.BMC oral health · 2026Article
- Predicting plaque-gingivitis risk in schoolchildren using an interpretable machine learning model: a cross-sectional study.BMC oral health · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a machine learning-based nomogram for predicting HLA-B27 expression.BMC immunology · 2023Article
- Application of machine learning in prediction of bone cement leakage during single-level thoracolumbar percutaneous vertebroplasty.BMC surgery · 2023Article
- Who to Be Treated: Nomogram Using Self-Reported Periodontal Screening Instrument among English-Speaking Adults in Multi-Ethnic Singapore.Journal of personalized medicine · 2022Article
- Socio-demographic factors, dental status, oral health knowledge and attitude, and health-related behaviors in dental visits among 12-year-old Shenzhen adolescents: a multilevel analysis.BMC oral health · 2022Article
- RNase III coding genes modulate the cross-kingdom biofilm ofFrontiers in microbiology · 2022Article
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8 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundA nomogram is a tool that transforms complex regression equations into simple and visual graphs and enables clinicians and patients to conveniently compute output probabilities without needing medical knowledge and complex formulas. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive nomogram to screen for severe caries among 12-year-old children based on risk factors in Sichuan Province, China.
methodsA cross-sectional study of 4573 12-year-olds was conducted up to May 2016 in middle schools from three districts and three counties in Sichuan Province, China. All the children underwent oral examinations and completed questionnaires to assess general information, oral impacts on daily performance, dietary habits, subjective health conditions, history of dental trauma, frequency of toothache, dental visits, and knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours toward oral hygiene. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine which variables were significantly associated with severe caries (operationalized as DMFT ≥ 3). A nomogram was developed and validated by using the 'rms' package and two cross-validation methods.
resultsSevere caries was found in 537 of the 4573 children (11.74%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the following variables predicted a higher risk of severe caries: 'female' [odds ratio (OR) = 1.985, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.63-2.411], 'urban' (OR = 2.389, 95% CI: 1.96-2.91), 'non-only child' (OR = 1.317, 95% CI: 1.07-1.625), 'very poor self-assessment of oral health status' (OR = 2.157, 95% CI: 1.34-3.467) and 'visited a dentist less than 6 months' (OR = 1.861, 95% CI: 1.38-2.505). Multivariate logistic regression analysis also indicated that the following variables predicted a lower risk of severe caries: 'middle level of urbanization' (OR = 0.395, 95% CI: 0.32-0.495) and 'high level of urbanization' (OR = 0.466, 95% CI: 0.37-0.596). Both the fivefold and leave-one-out cross-validation methods indicated that the nomogram model built by these 6 variables displayed good disease recognition ability.
conclusionsThe nomogram was a simple-to-use model to screen children for severe caries. This model was found to facilitate non-dental professionals in assessing risk values without oral examinations and making referrals to dental professionals.
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