ArticleAnnals of internal medicine2021
What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study.
Article in Annals of internal medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prospects of HIV elimination among men who have sex with men: A systematic review of modeling studies.PLoS computational biology · 2026Pooled it
- Projected Aging Among People With HIV in the US.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Assessing Motivation for Condom Use Among MSM: Effort Discounting as a Novel Measure of Sexual Risk.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Beliefs About Toxic Interactions Between Alcohol and PrEP Predict Less Initiation and More Discontinuation: Results from the RADAR Cohort Study.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study.American journal of public health · 2026Article
- The Potential Effect of Ending Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Funding for HIV Tests: A Modeling Study in 18 States.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- The Potential Effect of Ending CDC Funding for HIV Tests: A Modeling Study in 18 States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- The future of HIV: challenges in meeting the 2030 Ending the HIV Epidemic in the US (EHE) reduction goal.AIDS (London, England) · 2025Article
- Persistence With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Pre-exposure Prophylaxis in an Active-Duty Military Population.AIDS and behavior · 2025Article
- Perspectives and experiences regarding pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in a community sample of Veterans with unhealthy alcohol use: overall and across sexual orientation and gender identity.Addiction science & clinical practice · 2025Article
- The Future of HIV: Challenges in meeting the 2030medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Including transgender populations in mathematical models for HIV treatment and prevention: current barriers and policy implications.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Article
- HIV PrEP Coverage Among Black Adults: A Concept Analysis of the Inequities, Disparities, and Implications.Health equity · 2024Review
- Impact of subgroup-specific heterogeneities and dynamic changes in mortality rates on forecasted population size, deaths, and age distribution of persons receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States: a computer simulation study.Annals of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Estimating the epidemiological impact of reaching the objectives of the Florida integrated HIV prevention and care plan in Miami-Dade County.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- The Testing Imperative: Why the US Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic Program Needs to Renew Efforts to Expand HIV Testing in Clinical and Community-Based Settings.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
- Achieving the "Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S." incidence reduction goals among at-risk populations in the South.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Leveraging mHealth and Patient Supporters for African Americans' and Latinxs' Engagement in HIV Care (LEAN): Protocol for a Randomized, Controlled, Effectiveness-Implementation Trial.JMIR research protocols · 2023Article
- Article
- Evaluating the sensitivity of jurisdictional heterogeneity and jurisdictional mixing in national level HIV prevention analyses: context of the U.S. ending the HIV epidemic plan.BMC medical research methodology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce incident HIV infections by 90% over a span of 10 years. The intensity of interventions needed to achieve this for local epidemics is unclear.
objectiveTo estimate the effect of HIV interventions at the city level.
designA compartmental model of city-level HIV transmission stratified by age, race, sex, and HIV risk factor was developed and calibrated.
setting32 priority metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). PATIENTS: Simulated populations in each MSA.
interventionCombinations of HIV testing and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among those at risk for HIV, plus viral suppression in persons with diagnosed HIV infection. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was the projected reduction in incident cases from 2020 to 2030.
resultsAbsent intervention, HIV incidence was projected to decrease by 19% across all 32 MSAs. Modest increases in testing (1.25-fold per year), PrEP coverage (5 percentage points), and viral suppression (10 percentage points) across the population could achieve reductions of 34% to 67% by 2030. Twenty-five percent PrEP coverage, testing twice a year on average, and 90% viral suppression among young Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM) achieved similar reductions (13% to 68%). Including all MSM and persons who inject drugs could reduce incidence by 48% to 90%. Thirteen of 32 MSAs could achieve greater than 90% reductions in HIV incidence with large-scale interventions that include heterosexuals. A web application with location-specific results is publicly available (www.jheem.org). LIMITATION: The COVID-19 pandemic was not represented.
conclusionLarge reductions in HIV incidence are achievable with substantial investment, but the EHE goals will be difficult to achieve in most locations. An interactive model that can help policymakers maximize the effect in their local environments is presented. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.