ArticlePLoS computational biology2021
Levels of SARS-CoV-2 population exposure are considerably higher than suggested by seroprevalence surveys.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 33 citations in OpenAlex.
- Estimating the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections by jointly modelling seroprevalence, hospitalization and mortality data, February 2020 - January 2021, Belgium.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Mobility-driven synthetic contact matrices as a scalable solution for real-time pandemic response modeling.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Intensity of public health and social measures are associated with effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative study.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Mass testing for discovery and control of COVID-19 outbreaks in adult social care: an observational study and cost-effectiveness analysis of 14 805 care homes in England.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Serology Across Scales: A Framework for Unbiased Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Incorporating Antibody Kinetics and Epidemic Recency.American journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- SARS-CoV-2 IgG seroprevalence surveys in blood donors before the vaccination campaign, France 2020-2021.iScience · 2023Article
- Analysis of fatality impact and seroprevalence surveys in a community sustaining a SARS-CoV-2 superspreading event.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Policies on children and schools during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Western Europe.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Population-based sero-epidemiological investigation of the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Nationally representative results on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and testing in Germany at the end of 2020.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Infection, immunity, and surveillance of COVID-19.PLoS medicine · 2022Article
- Article
- Trend in Sensitivity of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Serology One Year After Mild and Asymptomatic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Unpacking Potential Bias in Seroprevalence Studies.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- COVID-19 morbidity in Afghanistan: a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study.BMJ open · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 active infection prevalence and seroprevalence in the adult population of St. Louis County.Annals of epidemiology · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 reinfections: Overview of efficacy and duration of natural and hybrid immunity.Environmental research · 2022Review
- Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- [Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among children and adolescents in Germany-an overview].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2021Review
- Quantifying previous SARS-CoV-2 infection through mixture modelling of antibody levels.Nature communications · 2021Article
- SARS-CoV-2 serology across scales: a framework for unbiased seroprevalence estimation incorporating antibody kinetics and epidemic recency.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Accurate knowledge of prior population exposure has critical ramifications for preparedness plans for future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves and vaccine prioritization strategies. Serological studies can be used to estimate levels of past exposure and thus position populations in their epidemic timeline. To circumvent biases introduced by the decay in antibody titers over time, methods for estimating population exposure should account for seroreversion, to reflect that changes in seroprevalence measures over time are the net effect of increases due to recent transmission and decreases due to antibody waning. Here, we present a new method that combines multiple datasets (serology, mortality, and virus positivity ratios) to estimate seroreversion time and infection fatality ratios (IFR) and simultaneously infer population exposure levels. The results indicate that the average time to seroreversion is around six months, IFR is 0.54% to 1.3%, and true exposure may be more than double the current seroprevalence levels reported for several regions of England.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.