ArticleEuropean economic review2021
Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: Insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe.
Article in European economic review, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimation of transmission distance between cases of (re-)emerging respiratory infectious diseases and its potential application in outbreak response.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Revisiting the complex time-varying effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in the United States.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Relationship of close contact settings with transmission and infection during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai.BMJ global health · 2023Article
- Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China.PNAS nexus · 2023Article
- Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European COVID-19 trajectories.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model.Applied energy · 2022Article
- Public Compliance Matters in Evidence-Based Public Health Policy: Evidence from Evaluating Social Distancing in the First Wave of COVID-19.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the residential real estate market on the example of Szczecin, Poland.Procedia computer science · 2022Article
- A comparative study on renewable and traditional electricity: The influence of the European Union framework and the impact of COVID-19.PloS one · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real-time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an illustration, we estimate the GDP loss caused by COVID-19 in twelve European countries during the first wave of the pandemic. Our results are almost indistinguishable from the official statistics during the first two quarters of 2020 (the correlation coefficient is 0.98) and are validated by several robustness tests. We provide estimates that are more chronologically disaggregated and up-to-date than standard macroeconomic indicators and, therefore, can provide timely information for policy evaluation in time of crisis. Our results show that pursuing "herd immunity" did not shelter from the harmful economic impacts of the first wave of the pandemic. They also suggest that coordinating policies internationally is fundamental for minimizing spillover effects from non-pharmaceutical interventions across countries.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.