ArticlePhilosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences2021
Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change.
Article in Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Climate change reshapes the potential transmission risk of human alveolar and cystic echinococcosis in western China: a projection based on MaxEnt models.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2026Article
- Diversity and Spatiotemporal Atlas of Ticks in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration Based on the MaxEnt Model.Veterinary sciences · 2026Article
- Organoids Gone Viral: A Comprehensive Review on Human Organoid Models to Study Viral Pathogenesis.Viruses · 2026Review
- Use of Contaminated Habitat and Associated Selenium Uptake Mediate Haemosporidian Parasite Infections in Wild Passerine Birds.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Virome diversity in small mammals from south China: Insights into virus evolution, transmission, and ecology.Virologica Sinica · 2025Article
- Pathogen-induced alterations in fine-scale movement behaviour predict impaired reproductive success.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Risk Assessment of Global Animal Melioidosis Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Evidence for the Vacated Niche Hypothesis in Parasites of Invasive Mammals.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- A phylogenetic epidemiology approach to predicting the establishment of multi-host plant pests.Communications biology · 2025Article
- Pathogens and planetary change.Nature reviews. Biodiversity · 2025Article
- Small mammals and associated infections in China: a systematic review and spatial modelling analysis.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Exploring winter diet, gut microbiota and parasitism in caribou using multi-marker metabarcoding of fecal DNA.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2024Review
- Fifty Years of the National Rabies Control Program in Brazil under the One Health Perspective.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Discovery and characterization of novel paramyxoviruses from bat samples in China.Virologica Sinica · 2023Article
- Travelling with a parasite: the evolution of resistance and dispersal syndromes during experimental range expansion.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Towards a phylogenetic ecology of plant pests and pathogens.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Review
- The ghost of hosts past: impacts of host extinction on parasite specificity.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change. This geographic reshuffling may result in novel co-occurrences among species, which could lead to unseen biotic interactions, including the exchange of parasites between previously isolated hosts. Identifying potential new host-parasite interactions would improve forecasting of disease emergence and inform proactive disease surveillance. However, accurate predictions of future cross-species disease transmission have been hampered by the lack of a generalized approach and data availability. Here, we propose a framework to predict novel host-parasite interactions based on a combination of niche modelling of future host distributions and parasite sharing models. Using the North American ungulates as a proof of concept, we show this approach has high cross-validation accuracy in over 85% of modelled parasites and find that more than 34% of the host-parasite associations forecasted by our models have already been recorded in the literature. We discuss potential sources of uncertainty and bias that may affect our results and similar forecasting approaches, and propose pathways to generate increasingly accurate predictions. Our results indicate that forecasting parasite sharing in response to shifts in host geographic distributions allow for the identification of regions and taxa most susceptible to emergent pathogens under climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.
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