Nomogram for the prediction of individualized overall survival of patients diagnosed with small cell esophageal carcinoma.

backgroundA nomogram was developed for the estimation of individualized overall survival (OS) of patients diagnosed with small cell esophageal carcinoma (SCEC).

methodsFrom the SEER dataset, 427 patients diagnosed with SCEC during the period from 2004 to 2015 were selected as training sets. For the establishment of a nomogram capable of estimating the OS possibility of patients diagnosed with SCEC, a group of independent prognostic factors were identified and incorporated. The effectiveness of the nomogram was then both externally and internally verified among 159 patients from Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) who were diagnosed with SCEC between 2006 and 2015. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were measured by concordance index (C-index). Comparisons between nomogram and the AJCC staging systems (6th and 7th) were performed with calibration plots and area under the curves (AUC) values.

resultsWe identified age, gender, primary site, SEER stage, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy as seven independent risk factors which were then used to set up the nomogram. Calibration curves indicated that the prediction of the nomogram was consistent with real observations for the possibilities of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, and applying the nomogram to the cohort for validation led to reproducible results. Moreover, the C-indices and AUC values were higher in the nomogram than those in the AJCC staging system AJCC which is also aimed at the prediction of OS.

conclusionsThis study resulted in the establishment of the first nomogram for the prediction of individualized OS of patients diagnosed with SCEC. The accuracy rate of prediction of this model may be higher than previously established staging systems.