ArticlePloS one2021
Australia could miss the WHO hepatitis C virus elimination targets due to declining treatment uptake and ongoing burden of advanced liver disease complications.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Sustaining policy promise: rhetorics of disease elimination and sustainable development.Medical humanities · 2026Article
- Trends and forecasting of reported hepatitis B and hepatitis C incidence in Hainan Province, China, 2005-2020.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2026Article
- Missed opportunities in HCV care: Trends in late diagnosis and treatment.JHEP reports : innovation in hepatology · 2025Article
- Cost-effectiveness of Alternative Approaches to Hepatitis C Diagnosis and Treatment Initiation for Treatment-naive People Who Inject Drugs in Australia: A Model-based Economic Evaluation.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Estimating the impact of direct acting antiviral therapy on the prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection using phylogenetics.Virus research · 2025Article
- Progress Toward Hepatitis C Virus Elimination among People Living with HIV-Hepatitis C Virus Coinfection in Canada.Canadian liver journal · 2025Article
- Australian Community Pharmacists' Preparedness to Offer and Discuss Hepatitis C Testing and Treatment With Pharmacy Clients: A Representative Cross-Sectional Survey.Journal of viral hepatitis · 2025Article
- Practical solutions to resolve social barriers to hepatitis C treatment initiation among people who inject drugs: a qualitative study.Harm reduction journal · 2024Article
- Trends in viral hepatitis liver-related morbidity and mortality in New South Wales, Australia.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Article
- Impact of simplified HCV diagnostic strategies on the HCV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of HIV oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in Taiwan: a modelling study.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2024Article
- Article
- In search of a 'good number': knowledge controversy and population estimates in the endgame of hepatitis C elimination.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Article
- Removing hepatitis C antibody testing for Australian blood donations: A cost-effectiveness analysis.Vox sanguinis · 2023Article
- The health needs of people leaving prison with a history of methamphetamine and/or opioid use.Drug and alcohol review · 2023Article
- The 11th Canadian Symposium on Hepatitis C Virus: 'Getting back on track towards hepatitis C elimination'.Canadian liver journal · 2023Article
- Falling treatment uptake in the hepatitis C care cascade is a growing threat to achieving elimination.Journal of viral hepatitis · 2023Article
- The Importance of Prisons in Achieving Hepatitis C Elimination: Insights from the Australian Experience.Viruses · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Australia was one of the first countries to introduce government-funded unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, with 88,790 treated since March 2016. However, treatment uptake is declining which could potentially undermine Australia's progress towards the WHO HCV elimination targets. Using mathematical modelling, we updated estimates for those living with chronic HCV in Australia, new cases of decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related mortality among the HCV-cured and viraemic populations from 2015 to 2030. We considered various DAA treatment scenarios incorporating annual treatment numbers to 2020, and subsequent uptake per year of 6,790 (pessimistic), 8,100 (intermediate), and 11,310 (optimistic). We incorporated the effects of excess alcohol consumption and reduction in progression to DC and HCC among cirrhosis-cured versus viraemic individuals. At the end of 2020, we estimated 117,810 Australians were living with chronic HCV. New cases per year of DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality among the HCV viraemic population decreased rapidly from 2015 (almost eliminated by 2030). In contrast, the growing population size of those cured with advanced liver disease meant DC, HCC, and liver-related mortality declined slowly. The estimated reduction in liver-related mortality from 2015 to 2030 in the combined HCV viraemic and cured population is 25% in the intermediate scenario. With declining HCV treatment uptake and ongoing individual-level risk of advanced liver disease complications, including among cirrhosis-cured individuals, Australia is unlikely to achieve all WHO HCV elimination targets by 2030.
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