ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2021
A longitudinal study of convergence between Black and White COVID-19 mortality: A county fixed effects approach.
Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Timing of Infection as a Key Driver of Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Coronavirus Disease 2019 Mortality Rates During the Prevaccine Period.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Association of race/ethnicity and severe housing problems with COVID-19 deaths in the United States: Analysis of the first three waves.PloS one · 2024Article
- Evolving patterns of COVID-19 mortality in US counties: A longitudinal study of healthcare, socioeconomic, and vaccination associations.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Dying together: A convergence analysis of fatalities during COVID-19.Journal of economic asymmetries · 2023Article
- COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States.Population research and policy review · 2023Article
- Longitudinal trends (2011-2020) of premature mortality and years of potential life loss (YPLL) and associated covariates of the 62 New York State counties.International journal for equity in health · 2023Article
- The relationship between staying at home during the pandemic and the number of conceptions: A national panel data analysis.PloS one · 2023Article
- A Study of Cumulative COVID-19 Mortality Trends Associated with Ethnic-Racial Composition, Income Inequality, and Party Inclination among US Counties.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Spatial prediction of COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in the United States.ISPRS international journal of geo-information · 2022Article
- Early Childhood Education Teacher Well-Being: Performativity as a Means of Coping.Early childhood education journal · 2022Article
- Sociodemographic and geographic disparities in excess fatal drug overdoses during the COVID-19 pandemic in California: A population-based study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2022Article
- Closing the health inequity gap during the pandemic: COVID-19 mortality among racial and ethnic groups in Connecticut, March 2020 to December 2021.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2022Article
- Article
- The polarization of politics and public opinion and their effects on racial inequality in COVID mortality.PloS one · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Outbreak Management and Vaccination Strategy in The United States of America.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundNon-Hispanic Black populations have suffered much greater per capita COVID-19 mortality than White populations. Previous work has shown that rates of Black and White mortality have converged over time. Understanding of COVID-19 disparities over time is complicated by geographic changes in prevalence, and some prior research has claimed that regional shifts in COVID-19 prevalence may explain the convergence.
methodsUsing county-level COVID-19 mortality data stratified by race, we investigate the trajectory of Black and White per capita mortality from June 2020-January 2021. We use a county fixed-effects model to estimate changes within counties, then extend our models to leverage county-level variation in prevalence to study the effects of prevalence versus time trajectories in mortality disparities.
findingsOver this period, cumulative mortality rose by 61% and 90% for Black and White populations respectively, decreasing the mortality ratio by 0.4 (25.8%). These trends persisted when a county-level fixed-effects model was applied. Results revealed that county-level changes in prevalence nearly fully explain changes in mortality disparities over time.
interpretationResults suggest mechanisms underpinning convergence in Black/White mortality are not driven by fixed county-level characteristics or changes in the regional dispersion of COVID-19, but instead by changes within counties. Further, declines in the Black/White mortality ratio over time appear primarily linked to county-level changes in COVID-19 prevalence rather than other county-level factors that may vary with time. Research into COVID-19 disparities should focus on mechanisms that operate within-counties and are consistent with a prevalence-disparity relationship.
fundingThis work was supported by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences [E.H.: UL1TR002553].
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.