ArticleVirus evolution2021
Phylodynamics reveals the role of human travel and contact tracing in controlling the first wave of COVID-19 in four island nations.
Article in Virus evolution, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- Inferring epidemiological parameters under an infectious phylogeography model with visitor dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Phylogeographic evaluation of the effectiveness of Canadian travel restrictions in reducing SARS-CoV-2 variant importations and burden.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- PhyloJunction: A Computational Framework for Simulating, Developing, and Teaching Evolutionary Models.Systematic biology · 2024Article
- EpiFusion: Joint inference of the effective reproduction number by integrating phylodynamic and epidemiological modelling with particle filtering.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong.Systematic biology · 2024Article
- Estimates of early outbreak-specific SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters from genomic data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Article
- PhyloJunction: a computational framework for simulating, developing, and teaching evolutionary models.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023Article
- Leveraging insect-specific viruses to elucidate mosquito population structure and dynamics.PLoS pathogens · 2023Review
- Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 variants during the first two years of the pandemic in Colombia.Communications medicine · 2023Article
- LinguaPhylo: A probabilistic model specification language for reproducible phylogenetic analyses.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Tracing the international arrivals of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants after Aotearoa New Zealand reopened its border.Nature communications · 2022Article
- An Efficient Coalescent Epoch Model for Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference.Systematic biology · 2022Article
- Phylogenetic and phylodynamic approaches to understanding and combating the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.Nature reviews. Genetics · 2022Review
- Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- A systematic review of COVID-19 transport policies and mitigation strategies around the globe.Transportation research interdisciplinary perspectives · 2022Article
- New Phylogenetic Models Incorporating Interval-Specific Dispersal Dynamics Improve Inference of Disease Spread.Molecular biology and evolution · 2022Article
- Genomic epidemiology of Delta SARS-CoV-2 during transition from elimination to suppression in Aotearoa New Zealand.Nature communications · 2022Article
- The End of the Elimination Strategy: Decisive Factors towards Sustainable Management of COVID-19 in New Zealand.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Epidemiological inference from pathogen genomes: A review of phylodynamic models and applications.Virus evolution · 2022Review
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
New Zealand, Australia, Iceland, and Taiwan all saw success in controlling their first waves of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). As islands, they make excellent case studies for exploring the effects of international travel and human movement on the spread of COVID-19. We employed a range of robust phylodynamic methods and genome subsampling strategies to infer the epidemiological history of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in these four countries. We compared these results to transmission clusters identified by the New Zealand Ministry of Health by contact tracing strategies. We estimated the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 as 1-1.4 during early stages of the pandemic and show that it declined below 1 as human movement was restricted. We also showed that this disease was introduced many times into each country and that introductions slowed down markedly following the reduction of international travel in mid-March 2020. Finally, we confirmed that New Zealand transmission clusters identified via standard health surveillance strategies largely agree with those defined by genomic data. We have demonstrated how the use of genomic data and computational biology methods can assist health officials in characterising the epidemiology of viral epidemics and for contact tracing.
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