Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34526495›Full record

ArticleNature communications2021

Blue food demand across geographic and temporal scales.

Rosamond L Naylor, Avinash Kishore, U Rashid Sumaila, Ibrahim Issifu, Blaire P Hunter, Ben Belton, Simon R Bush, Ling Cao, Stefan Gelcich, Jessica A Gephart and 7 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 75 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
75citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

75 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Climate-mediated food safety hazards of aquaculture.Environmental research. Food systems · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Environmental Impacts of Cultivated (Lab-Based) Blue Foods.Environmental science & technology · 2026
    Article
  6. Valorization of Chum Salmon (Marine drugs · 2026
    Article
  7. Review
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Dried fish provide widespread access to critical nutrients across Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

15 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Rosamond L NaylorStanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. roz@stanford.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1260-3322
Avinash KishoreInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), New Delhi, India.
U Rashid SumailaUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1851-1621
Ibrahim IssifuUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0568-0098
Blaire P HunterStanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Ben BeltonWorldFish, Bayan Lepas, Malaysia.
Simon R BushWageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Ling CaoShanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Stefan GelcichPontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5976-9311
Jessica A GephartAmerican University, Washington, DC, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6836-9291
Christopher D GoldenHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Malin JonellBeijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
J Zachary KoehnStanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2668-6093
David C LittleUniversity of Stirling, Stirling, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6095-3191
Shakuntala H ThilstedWorldFish, Bayan Lepas, Malaysia.
Michelle TigchelaarStanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7964-229X
Beatrice CronaStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1617-4067

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of 'blue foods', defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand. Here we analyze the roles of economic, demographic, and geographic factors and preferences in shaping blue food demand, using secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales. Our results show a weak cross-sectional relationship between per capita income and consumption globally when using an aggregate fish metric. Disaggregation by fish species group reveals distinct geographic patterns; for example, high consumption of freshwater fish in China and pelagic fish in Ghana and Peru where these fish are widely available, affordable, and traditionally eaten. We project a near doubling of global fish demand by mid-century assuming continued growth in aquaculture production and constant real prices for fish. Our study concludes that nutritional and environmental consequences of rising demand will depend on substitution among fish groups and other animal source foods in national diets.

Indexed as

FoodAfricaAnimalsAquacultureAsiaEuropeFishesFood SupplyFresh WaterGeographyGlobal HealthHumansIncomeModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaSeafood

Identifiers

PMID34526495
PMCPMC8443621

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.