ArticleVaccine2021
The impact of COVID-19 vaccination delay: A data-driven modeling analysis for Chicago and New York City.
Article in Vaccine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 35 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- The SARS-CoV-2 test scale-up in the USA: an analysis of the number of tests produced and used over time and their modelled impact on the COVID-19 pandemic.The Lancet. Public health · 2025Article
- Assessing New York City's COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Strategy: A Case for Risk-Informed Distribution.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2024Article
- Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Understanding the impact of disease and vaccine mechanisms on the importance of optimal vaccine allocation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Article
- Urban Determinants of COVID-19 Spread: a Comparative Study across Three Cities in New York State.Journal of urban health : bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine · 2022Article
- Impact of optimal vaccination and social distancing on COVID-19 pandemic.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2022Article
- On the role of financial support programs in mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 spread in Brazil.BMC public health · 2022Article
- From pandemic to a new normal: Strategies to optimise governmental interventions in Indonesia based on an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Near real time monitoring and forecasting for COVID-19 situational awareness.Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England) · 2022Article
- Nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 waves: the recursive and stochastic nature of transmission.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- On the mass COVID-19 vaccination scheduling problem.Computers & operations research · 2022Article
- Stability Analysis of an Extended SEIR COVID-19 Fractional Model with Vaccination Efficiency.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- COVID-19 underreporting and its impact on vaccination strategies.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Estimating, monitoring, and forecasting COVID-19 epidemics: a spatiotemporal approach applied to NYC data.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Multi-generational SIR modeling: Determination of parameters, epidemiological forecasting and age-dependent vaccination policies.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundBy the beginning of December 2020, some vaccines against COVID-19 already presented efficacy and security, which qualify them to be used in mass vaccination campaigns. Thus, setting up strategies of vaccination became crucial to control the COVID-19 pandemic.
methodsWe use daily COVID-19 reports from Chicago and New York City (NYC) from 01-Mar2020 to 28-Nov-2020 to estimate the parameters of an SEIR-like epidemiological model that accounts for different severity levels. To achieve data adherent predictions, we let the model parameters to be time-dependent. The model is used to forecast different vaccination scenarios, where the campaign starts at different dates, from 01-Oct-2020 to 01-Apr-2021. To generate realistic scenarios, disease control strategies are implemented whenever the number of predicted daily hospitalizations reaches a preset threshold.
resultsThe model reproduces the empirical data with remarkable accuracy. Delaying the vaccination severely affects the mortality, hospitalization, and recovery projections. In Chicago, the disease spread was under control, reducing the mortality increment as the start of the vaccination was postponed. In NYC, the number of cases was increasing, thus, the estimated model predicted a much larger impact, despite the implementation of contention measures. The earlier the vaccination campaign begins, the larger is its potential impact in reducing the COVID-19 cases, as well as in the hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, the rate at which cases, hospitalizations and deaths increase with the delay in the vaccination beginning strongly depends on the shape of the incidence of infection in each city.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.