ArticleWorld journal of gastroenterology2021
Planning the hepatitis C virus elimination in Cyprus: A modeling study.
Article in World journal of gastroenterology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 citations in OpenAlex.
- Editorial: Effective Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatments Support Global and National Programs to Eliminate Hepatitis C.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundHepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major global public health problem. In the Republic of Cyprus, the estimated prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) among the general population is 0.6%, while the CHC prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID) is estimated at 46%. Direct-acting antivirals that can eliminate HCV are not yet widely available in the Republic of Cyprus. However, when direct-acting antivirals become available, a long-term strategic plan to guide elimination efforts will be needed to maximize the effect of treatment.
aimTo determine the programmatic targets to eliminate HCV in the Republic of Cyprus.
methodsA dynamic, stochastic, individual-based model of HCV transmission, disease progression, and cascade of care was calibrated to data from Cyprus. The model stratifies the population into the infected general population and the PWID population. A variety of test, prevention, and treatment strategies concerning the general population, PWID, or both were examined. The time horizon of the analysis was until 2034.
resultsUnder the status quo scenario, the model predicted that 75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 60, 91) and 575 (95%CI: 535, 615) liver-related deaths and new infections would occur by 2034, respectively. Launching an expanded treatment program, without screening interventions, would cause modest outcomes regarding CHC prevalence (16.6% reduction in 2034 compared to 2020) and liver-related deaths (10 deaths would be prevented compared to the status quo scenario by 2034). Implementing a test and treat strategy among the general population but without any intervention in the PWID population would suffice to meet the mortality target but not the incidence target. To achieve HCV elimination in Cyprus, 3080 (95%CI: 3000, 3200) HCV patients need to be diagnosed and treated by 2034 (2680 from the general population and 400 from PWID), and harm reduction coverage among PWID should be increased by 3% per year (from 25% in 2020 to 67% in 2034).
conclusionElimination of HCV is a demanding public health strategy, which requires significant interventions both among the general population and high-risk groups.
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