ArticleBMJ open2021
Development of influenza-associated disease burden pyramid in Shanghai, China, 2010-2017: a Bayesian modelling study.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The Cost of Seasonal Influenza: A Systematic Literature Review on the Humanistic and Economic Burden of Influenza in Older (≥ 65 Years Old) Adults.Advances in therapy · 2024Pooled it
- High Clinical Burden of Influenza Disease in Adults Aged ≥ 65 Years: Can We Do Better? A Systematic Literature Review.Advances in therapy · 2023Pooled it
- Estimation of influenza incidence and analysis of epidemic characteristics from 2009 to 2022 in Zhejiang Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Article
- Recent Increases in Influenza-Related Hospitalizations, Critical Care Resource Use, and In-Hospital Mortality: A 10-Year Population-Based Study in South Korea.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
objectivesNegative estimates can be produced when statistical modelling techniques are applied to estimate morbidity and mortality attributable to influenza. Based on the prior knowledge that influenza viruses are hazardous pathogens and have adverse health outcomes of respiratory and circulatory disease (R&C), we developed an improved model incorporating Bayes' theorem to estimate the disease burden of influenza in Shanghai, China, from 2010 to 2017.
designA modelling study using aggregated data from administrative systems on weekly R&C mortality and hospitalisation, influenza surveillance and meteorological data. We constrained the regression coefficients for influenza activity to be positive by truncating the prior distributions at zero.
settingShanghai, China.
participantsPeople registered with R&C deaths (450 298) and hospitalisations (2621 787, from 1 July 2013), and with influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient visits (342 149) between 4 January 2010 and 31 December 2017. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Influenza-associated disease burden (mortality, hospitalisation and outpatient visit rates) and clinical severity (outpatient-mortality, outpatient-hospitalisation and hospitalisation-mortality risks).
resultsInfluenza was associated with an annual average of 15.49 (95% credibility interval (CrI) 9.06-22.06) excess R&C deaths, 100.65 (95% CrI 48.79-156.78) excess R&C hospitalisations and 914.95 (95% CrI 798.51-1023.66) excess ILI outpatient visits per 100 000 population in Shanghai. 97.23% and 80.24% excess R&C deaths and hospitalisations occurred in people aged ≥65 years. More than half of excess morbidity and mortality were associated with influenza A(H3N2) virus, and its severities were 1.65-fold to 3.54-fold and 1.47-fold to 2.16-fold higher than that for influenza A(H1N1) and B viruses, respectively.
conclusionsThe proposed Bayesian approach with reasonable prior information improved estimates of influenza-associated disease burden. Influenza A(H3N2) virus was generally associated with higher morbidity and mortality, and was relatively more severe compared with influenza A(H1N1) and B viruses. Targeted influenza prevention and control strategies for the elderly in Shanghai may substantially reduce the disease burden.
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