Red blood cell distribution width and tumor necrosis factor-α for the early prediction of coronary artery lesion in Kawasaki disease: a retrospective study.

We aimed to identify novel risk factors for the early prediction of coronary artery lesion (CAL) in children with Kawasaki disease (KD). We retrospectively analyzed data from hospitalized children newly diagnosed with KD between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020, with the following inclusion criteria: (1) diagnosis of KD, (2) first onset of CAL after admission, (3) with complete clinical records. Demographic and laboratory data were collected and analyzed. The independent risk factors of KD combined with CAL were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis, followed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to calculate the efficacy of identified risk factors in predicting KD combined with CAL. Among 241 initially recruited patients, 226 were eligible to be included in the study. Based on echocardiographic indications of CAL, 104 patients (46%) were assigned to the CAL (KD-CAL) group and 122 (54%) patients were assigned to the non-CAL (KD-nCAL) group. The levels of red blood cell count, red blood cell distribution width (RDW), C-reactive protein, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and interleukin-6 were significantly higher in the KD-CAL group than those in the KD-nCAL group (all p < 0.05). RDW and TNF-α were found as independent risk factors of CAL occurrence. The sensitivity and specificity of RDW, TNF-α, and RDW + TNF-α in predicting KD with CAL were 67.31% and 79.51%, 74.04% and 73.77%, and 79.81% and 80.33%, respectively.Conclusion: In conclusion, alterations in RDW and TNF-α levels can be used as novel biomarkers for early prediction of CAL in KD patients, although the differences in their absolute values were small and might not give any added value to echocardiography. What is Known: •Known risk factors of CAL in children with KD include male gender and delayed use of intravenous immune globulin. What is New: •Our current study identified that red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) are novel independent risk factors for predicting CAL combined with KD among patients. •The combination of these RDW and TNF-α together shows higher sensitivity and specificity than either one used alone.