Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34492100›Full record

SynthesisJournal of Crohn's & colitis2022

Machine Learning-based Prediction Models for Diagnosis and Prognosis in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases: A Systematic Review.

Nghia H Nguyen, Dominic Picetti, Parambir S Dulai, Vipul Jairath, William J Sandborn, Lucila Ohno-Machado, Peter L Chen, Siddharth Singh

Open access · greenAbstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Journal of Crohn's & colitis, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
36citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
5.0field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

36 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 48 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Nghia H NguyenDivision of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Dominic PicettiDivision of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Parambir S DulaiDivision of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Vipul JairathDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Western University, London, ON, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-8603-898X
William J SandbornDivision of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Lucila Ohno-MachadoDivision of Biomedical Informatics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
Peter L ChenHyperPlanar, San Diego, CA, USA.
Siddharth SinghDivision of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2640-7269
University of California San Diego · USWestern University · CA

Funding

San Diego Digestive Diseases Research CenterP30DK120515 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI ROHIT LOOMBA · 2019 to 2026
$10.8M
San Diego Biomedical Informatics Education & Research (SABER)T15LM011271 · NLM · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SHAMIM NEMATI · 2012 to 2026
$9.7M
Training Grant in GastroenterologyT32DK007202 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI GHOSH, PRADIPTA · 1985 to 2022
$7.7M
Comparative Risks and Benefits of Pharmacological Therapies for Older Patients with Inflammatory Bowel DiseasesK23DK117058 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SINGH, SIDDHARTH · 2018 to 2022
$971k
Predicting Short- and Long-term Risk of Serious Infections in Older Patients with Inflammatory Bowel DiseasesR03DK129631 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SINGH, SIDDHARTH · 2021 to 2022
$203k
NIDDK NIH HHS K23 DK117058NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK120515NIDDK NIH HHS R03 DK129631NIDDK NIH HHS T32 DK007202NIDDK NIH HHS T32DK007202NIH HHS K23DK117058NLM NIH HHS T15 LM011271
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsThere is increasing interest in machine learning-based prediction models in inflammatory bowel diseases [IBD]. We synthesised and critically appraised studies comparing machine learning vs traditional statistical models, using routinely available clinical data for risk prediction in IBD.

methodsThrough a systematic review till January 1, 2021, we identified cohort studies that derived and/or validated machine learning models, based on routinely collected clinical data in patients with IBD, to predict the risk of harbouring or developing adverse clinical outcomes, and reported its predictive performance against a traditional statistical model for the same outcome. We appraised the risk of bias in these studies using the Prediction model Risk of Bias ASsessment [PROBAST] tool.

resultsWe included 13 studies on machine learning-based prediction models in IBD, encompassing themes of predicting treatment response to biologics and thiopurines and predicting longitudinal disease activity and complications and outcomes in patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis. The most common machine learning models used were tree-based algorithms, which are classification approaches achieved through supervised learning. Machine learning models outperformed traditional statistical models in risk prediction. However, most models were at high risk of bias, and only one was externally validated.

conclusionsMachine learning-based prediction models based on routinely collected data generally perform better than traditional statistical models in risk prediction in IBD, though frequently have high risk of bias. Future studies examining these approaches are warranted, with special focus on external validation and clinical applicability.

Indexed as

Inflammatory Bowel DiseasesMachine LearningBiasHumansModels, StatisticalPrognosisbig dataCrohn’s diseaseMachine learningpredictionulcerative colitis

Identifiers

PMID34492100
PMCPMC8919806
OpenAlexW3197039049

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.