Gestational age as a predictor for subsequent preterm birth in New South Wales, Australia.

Gavin Pereira, Annette K Regan, Kingsley Wong, Gizachew A Tessema

Abstract read

In one paragraph

Article in BMC pregnancy and childbirth, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it

0cells of the map it votes in

1citing papers in PubMed

–field-weighted citation impact

1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

Prediction Models for Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in India: Methodological Considerations for an Emerging Topic.Journal of obstetrics and gynaecology of India · 2023
Article

4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Gavin PereiraCurtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia. Gavin.f.pereira@curtin.edu.au.

Annette K ReganCurtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia.

Kingsley WongCurtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia.

Gizachew A TessemaCurtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThere is no validated evidence base on predictive ability and absolute risk of preterm birth by gestational age of the previous pregnancy.

methodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of mothers who gave birth to their first two children in New South Wales, 1994-2016 (N = 517,558 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative and absolute risks of subsequent preterm birth.

resultsFor mothers whose first birth had a gestational age of 22 to 30 weeks the absolute risks of clinically significant preterm second birth (before 28, 32, and 34 weeks) were all less than 14%. For all gestational ages of the first child the median gestational ages of the second child were all at least 38 weeks. Sensitivity and positive predictive values were all below 30%.

conclusionPrevious gestational age alone is a poor predictor of subsequent risk of preterm birth.

Indexed as

Gestational AgeAdultAustraliaBirth OrderFemaleGravidityHumansInfant, NewbornNew South WalesParityPregnancyPremature BirthRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsYoung AdultGestational agePredictive value of testsPremature birthRecurrenceSensitivity and specificity

Identifiers

PMID34488655

DOI10.1186/s12884-021-04084-x

PMCPMC8422620

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY

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