ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2021
SARS-CoV-2 infections in 165 countries over time.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Evaluating strategies for global respiratory pandemic control at ports: a modelling study.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using RT-qPCRs by Targeting Recurrent Mutation Sites: A Diagnostic Laboratory Experience from Multi-Center Regional Study, August 2020-December 2021, Poland.International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Article
- Global respiratory virus surveillance: strengths, gaps, and way forward.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- Viral Etiological Agent(s) of Respiratory Tract Infections in Symptomatic Individuals during the Second Wave of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Single Drive-Thru Mobile Collection Site Study.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Sounds of COVID-19: exploring realistic performance of audio-based digital testing.NPJ digital medicine · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Diagnostics Outside and Inside the National Health Service: A Single Institutional Experience.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundUnderstanding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluating the efficacy of control measures requires knowledge of the number of infections over time. This number, however, often differs from the number of confirmed cases because of a large fraction of asymptomatic infections and different testing strategies.
methodsThis study uses death count statistics, age-dependent infection fatality risks, and stochastic modeling to estimate the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections among adults (aged 20 years or older) in 165 countries over time, from early 2020 until June 25, 2021. The accuracy of the approach is confirmed through comparison with previous nationwide seroprevalence surveys.
resultsThe estimates presented reveal that the fraction of infections that are detected vary widely over time and between countries, and hence confirmed cases alone often yield a false picture of the pandemic. As of June 25, 2021, the nationwide cumulative fraction of SARS-CoV-2 infections (cumulative infections relative to population size) was estimated as 98% (95% confidence interval [CI] 93-100%) for Peru, 83% (95% CI 61-94%) for Brazil, and 36% (95% CI 23-61%) for the United States.
conclusionsThe time-resolved estimates presented expand the possibilities to study the factors that influenced and still influence the pandemic's progression in 165 countries.
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Registered trials
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