Observational studyInfection2022
A bacteraemia risk prediction model: development and validation in an emergency medicine population.
Observational study in Infection, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- [Diagnostic accuracy of procalcitonin for bacteremia in the emergency department: a systematic review].Revista espanola de quimioterapia : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola de Quimioterapia · 2024Pooled it
- The association between body temperature parameters and blood culture positivity in the inpatient setting: a retrospective cohort study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Intuitive Risk Equation for Post-Transplant Bloodstream Infection Prediction: A Symbolic Regression Approach.Biomedicines · 2026Article
- Geographic Validation of the SADFUL Scores for Identifying Bacteremia in the Unscheduled Emergency Department Revisit Cohorts.Emergency medicine international · 2026Article
- [Usefulness of the MPB-INFURG-SEMES model to predict bacteremia in the patient with solid tumor in the Emergency Department].Revista espanola de quimioterapia : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola de Quimioterapia · 2024Observational
- [Utility of the medial region of pro-adrenomodulin for the detection of true bacteremia in elderly patients treated in the emergency department for suspected infection].Revista espanola de quimioterapia : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola de Quimioterapia · 2024Observational
- A Simple Bacteremia Score for Predicting Bacteremia in Patients with Suspected Infection in the Emergency Department: A Cohort Study.Journal of personalized medicine · 2023Article
- [Ability of qSOFA1-lactate to predict 30-day mortality in patients seen for infection in the Emergency Department].Revista espanola de quimioterapia : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola de Quimioterapia · 2023Observational
- [Improved profitability and indications for blood culture extraction in emergency departments: another step forward].Revista espanola de quimioterapia : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola de Quimioterapia · 2023Article
- Models for bacteraemia risk prediction. Clinical implications.Revista espanola de quimioterapia : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola de Quimioterapia · 2022Review
- [New predictive models of bacteremia in the emergency department: a step forward].Revista espanola de quimioterapia : publicacion oficial de la Sociedad Espanola de Quimioterapia · 2022Review
- External validation of ID-BactER and Shapiro scores for predicting bacteraemia in the emergency department.Therapeutic advances in infectious diseaseArticle
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Authors and funding
27 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveDesign a risk model to predict bacteraemia in patients attended in emergency departments (ED) for an episode of infection.
methodsThis was a national, prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study of blood cultures (BC) collected from adult patients (≥ 18 years) attended in 71 Spanish EDs from October 1 2019 to March 31, 2020. Variables with a p value < 0.05 were introduced in the univariate analysis together with those of clinical significance. The final selection of variables for the scoring scale was made by logistic regression with selection by introduction. The results obtained were internally validated by dividing the sample in a derivation and a validation cohort.
resultsA total of 4,439 infectious episodes were included. Of these, 899 (20.25%) were considered as true bacteraemia. A predictive model for bacteraemia was defined with seven variables according to the Bacteraemia Prediction Model of the INFURG-SEMES group (MPB-INFURG-SEMES). The model achieved an area under the curve-receiver operating curve of 0.924 (CI 95%:0.914-0.934) in the derivation cohort, and 0.926 (CI 95%: 0.910-0.942) in the validation cohort. Patients were then split into ten risk categories, and had the following rates of risk: 0.2%(0 points), 0.4%(1 point), 0.9%(2 points), 1.8%(3 points), 4.7%(4 points), 19.1% (5 points), 39.1% (6 points), 56.8% (7 points), 71.1% (8 points), 82.7% (9 points) and 90.1% (10 points). Findings were similar in the validation cohort. The cut-off point of five points provided the best precision with a sensitivity of 95.94%, specificity of 76.28%, positive predictive value of 53.63% and negative predictive value of 98.50%.
conclusionThe MPB-INFURG-SEMES model may be useful for the stratification of risk of bacteraemia in adult patients with infection in EDs, together with clinical judgement and other variables independent of the process and the patient.
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