Stochastic Model of the Adaptive Immune Response Predicts Disease Severity and Captures Enhanced Cross-Reactivity in Natural Dengue Infections.

The dengue virus circulates as four distinct serotypes, where a single serotype infection is typically asymptomatic and leads to acquired immunity against that serotype. However, the developed immunity to one serotype is thought to underlie the severe manifestation of the disease observed in subsequent infections from a different serotype. We developed a stochastic model of the adaptive immune response to dengue infections. We first delineated the mechanisms initiating and sustaining adaptive immune responses during primary infections. We then contrasted these immune responses during secondary infections of either a homotypic or heterotypic serotype to understand the role of pre-existing and reactivated immune pathways on disease severity. Comparison of non-symptomatic and severe cases from heterotypic infections demonstrated that overproduction of specific antibodies during primary infection induces an enhanced population of cross-reactive antibodies during secondary infection, ultimately leading to severe disease manifestations. In addition, the level of disease severity was found to correlate with immune response kinetics, which was dependent on beginning lymphocyte levels. Our results detail the contribution of specific lymphocytes and antibodies to immunity and memory recall that lead to either protective or pathological outcomes, allowing for the understanding and determination of mechanisms of protective immunity.