ArticleStochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal2022
Underdetection in a stochastic SIR model for the analysis of the COVID-19 Italian epidemic.
Article in Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Analysis and simulation of a stochastic COVID-19 model with large-scale nucleic acid detection and isolation measures: A case study of the outbreak in Urumqi, China in August 2022.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Limits of epidemic prediction using SIR models.Journal of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Pandemic Data Modeling in Pakistan Using Time-Series SIR.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
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Abstract
We propose a way to model the underdetection of infected and removed individuals in a compartmental model for estimating the COVID-19 epidemic. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse data from the Italian COVID-19 epidemic. We find that a correct assessment of the amount of underdetection is important to obtain reliable estimates of the critical model parameters. The adaptation of the model in each time interval between relevant government decrees implementing contagion mitigation measures provides short-term predictions and a continuously updated assessment of the basic reproduction number.
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