ArticleEpidemics2021
COVID-19 Belgium: Extended SEIR-QD model with nursing homes and long-term scenarios-based forecasts.
Article in Epidemics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A scoping review of COVID-19 modelling studies in Belgium 2020-2024: incorporation of behaviour and lessons learned.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Pooled it
- Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Wording the trajectory of the three-year COVID-19 epidemic in a general population - Belgium.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on Physical Fitness in Central Indian Athletes Aged 20-30 Years: A Cross-Sectional Pilot Study.Cureus · 2023Article
- How contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic are related to pre-pandemic contact patterns and mobility trends.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Seesaw Effect Between COVID-19 and Influenza From 2020 to 2023 in World Health Organization Regions: Correlation Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Mobility and the spatial spread of sars-cov-2 in Belgium.Mathematical biosciences · 2023Article
- The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness.Physica A · 2022Article
- Different forms of superspreading lead to different outcomes: Heterogeneity in infectiousness and contact behavior relevant for the case of SARS-CoV-2.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in English care homes: a modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
- Inferring age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon SARS-CoV-2 infection based on Belgian social contact data.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Optimal control analysis of a COVID-19 and tuberculosis co-dynamics model.Informatics in medicine unlocked · 2022Article
- Article
- A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies.BMC infectious diseases · 2021Article
- The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Leveraging of SARS-CoV-2 PCR Cycle Thresholds Values to Forecast COVID-19 Trends.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
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1 author.
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Abstract
Following the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and pending the establishment of vaccination campaigns, several non pharmaceutical interventions such as partial and full lockdown, quarantine and measures of physical distancing have been imposed in order to reduce the spread of the disease and to lift the pressure on healthcare system. Mathematical models are important tools for estimating the impact of these interventions, for monitoring the current evolution of the epidemic at a national level and for estimating the potential long-term consequences of relaxation of measures. In this paper, we model the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Belgium with a deterministic age-structured extended compartmental model. Our model takes special consideration for nursing homes which are modelled as separate entities from the general population in order to capture the specific delay and dynamics within these entities. The model integrates social contact data and is fitted on hospitalisations data (admission and discharge), on the daily number of COVID-19 deaths (with a distinction between general population and nursing home related deaths) and results from serological studies, with a sensitivity analysis based on a Bayesian approach. We present the situation as in November 2020 with the estimation of some characteristics of the COVID-19 deduced from the model. We also present several mid-term and long-term projections based on scenarios of reinforcement or relaxation of social contacts for different general sectors, with a lot of uncertainties remaining.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.