ArticleNature medicine2021
Predictors of COVID-19 epidemics in countries of the World Health Organization African Region.
Article in Nature medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed.
- The human immunome in the post-schistosomiasis mass drug administration era.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Review
- A narrative review of heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes and vaccine efficacy: strategizing pandemic preparedness in Africa.Frontiers in public health · 2026Review
- Compact highly sensitive photothermal RT-LAMP chip for simultaneous multidisease detection.Science advances · 2024Article
- Coronavirus disease-19 vaccine uptake, willingness for vaccination, and associated Factors among chronic follow patients attending in the two comprehensive specialized hospitals of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Healthcare system resilience and adaptability to pandemic disruptions in the United States.Nature medicine · 2024Article
- A Digital Mask-Voiceprint System for Postpandemic Surveillance and Tracing Based on the STRONG Strategy.Journal of medical Internet research · 2023Article
- COVID-19-related adolescent mortality and morbidity in nineteen European countries.European journal of pediatrics · 2023Article
- Country-level predictors of COVID-19 mortality.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- COVID-19 pandemic and socio-environmental inequality: A narrative review.Health science reports · 2023Article
- An assessment of the relationship between national rates of Covid-19 incidence and mortality as reported to an international comparison database: An ecological study.Health science reports · 2023Article
- Conflicting COVID-19 excess mortality estimates.Lancet (London, England) · 2023Article
- A Review of the Machine Learning Algorithms for Covid-19 Case Analysis.IEEE transactions on artificial intelligence · 2023Article
- COVID-19 Vehicle Based on an Efficient Mutual Authentication Scheme for 5G-Enabled Vehicular Fog Computing.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- A highly powerful nonspecific strategy to reduce COVID-19 deaths.Journal of medical virology · 2022Article
- Using multiagent modeling to forecast the spatiotemporal development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Predicting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa: the case of Namibia.Journal of travel medicine · 2022Article
- Coordination mechanisms for COVID-19 in the WHO Regional office for Africa.BMC health services research · 2022Review
- Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Toward resilient food systems after COVID-19.Current research in environmental sustainability · 2022Review
- COVID-19 response in WHO African Region: country and regional office experiences.The Pan African medical journal · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
21 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region have experienced a wide range of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics. This study aimed to identify predictors of the timing of the first COVID-19 case and the per capita mortality in WHO African Region countries during the first and second pandemic waves and to test for associations with the preparedness of health systems and government pandemic responses. Using a region-wide, country-based observational study, we found that the first case was detected earlier in countries with more urban populations, higher international connectivity and greater COVID-19 test capacity but later in island nations. Predictors of a high first wave per capita mortality rate included a more urban population, higher pre-pandemic international connectivity and a higher prevalence of HIV. Countries rated as better prepared and having more resilient health systems were worst affected by the disease, the imposition of restrictions or both, making any benefit of more stringent countermeasures difficult to detect. Predictors for the second wave were similar to the first. Second wave per capita mortality could be predicted from that of the first wave. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights unanticipated vulnerabilities to infectious disease in Africa that should be taken into account in future pandemic preparedness planning.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.