Hippocampal Resting-State Functional Connectivity Forecasts Individual Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms: A Data-Driven Approach.

backgroundPosttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a debilitating disorder, and there is no current accurate prediction of who develops it after trauma. Neurobiologically, individuals with chronic PTSD exhibit aberrant resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) between the hippocampus and other brain regions (e.g., amygdala, prefrontal cortex, posterior cingulate), and these aberrations correlate with severity of illness. Previous small-scale research (n < 25) has also shown that hippocampal rsFC measured acutely after trauma is predictive of future severity using a region-of-interest-based approach. While this is a promising biomarker, to date, no study has used a data-driven approach to test whole-brain hippocampal FC patterns in forecasting the development of PTSD symptoms.

methodsA total of 98 adults at risk of PTSD were recruited from the emergency department after traumatic injury and completed resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (8 min) within 1 month; 6 months later, they completed the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5 for assessment of PTSD symptom severity. Whole-brain rsFC values with bilateral hippocampi were extracted (using CONN) and used in a machine learning kernel ridge regression analysis (PRoNTo); a k-folds (k = 10) and 70/30 testing versus training split approach were used for cross-validation (1000 iterations to bootstrap confidence intervals for significance values).

resultsAcute hippocampal rsFC significantly predicted Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5 scores at 6 months (r = 0.30, p = .006; mean squared error = 120.58, p = .006; R

conclusionsFindings suggest that functional connectivity of the hippocampus across the brain acutely after traumatic injury is associated with prospective PTSD symptom severity.