Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34476335›Full record

ArticleRheumatology advances in practice2021

Predicting relapse in anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis: a Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Catherine King, Katie L Druce, Peter Nightingale, Ellen Kay, Neil Basu, Alan D Salama, Lorraine Harper

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Rheumatology advances in practice, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  9. Understanding the burden of ANCA-associated vasculitis.Rheumatology (Oxford, England) · 2026
    Review
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  11. Top ten tips in managing ANCA vasculitis.Clinical kidney journal · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Catherine KingCentre for Translational Inflammation Research, University of Birmingham.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8918-0404
Katie L DruceCentre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, University of Manchester.
Peter NightingaleCentre for Translational Inflammation Research, University of Birmingham.
Ellen KayDepartment of Renal Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, University Hospitals Birmingham, Birmingham.
Neil BasuInstitution of Infection, Immunity and Inflammation, University of Glasgow, Glasgow.
Alan D SalamaDepartment of Renal Medicine, University College London, London, UK.
Lorraine HarperCentre for Translational Inflammation Research, University of Birmingham.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesRelapses affect 30-50% of patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) over 5 years, necessitating long-term treatment. Although there have been studies looking at predictors of relapse in AAV, this research has yet to translate clinically into guidance on tailored therapy. The aim of this systematic review was to identify and meta-analyse existing risk factors from the literature and produce a model to calculate individualised patient risk of relapse.

methodA search strategy was developed to include all studies identifying predictors of AAV relapse using multivariate analysis. Individual risk factors were extracted and pooled hazard ratios (HRs) calculated. A model to predict the time to first relapse based on identified risk factors was tested retrospectively using a cohort of patients with AAV.

resultsThe review of 2674 abstracts identified 117 papers for full text review, with 16 eligible for inclusion. Pooled HRs were calculated from significant risk factors, including anti-PR3 ANCA positivity [HR 1.69 (95% CI 1.46, 1.94)], cardiovascular involvement [HR 1.78 (95% CI 1.26, 2.53)], creatinine >200 µmol/l (relative to creatinine ≤100) [HR 0.39 (95% CI 0.22, 0.69)] and creatinine 101-200 µmol/l [HR 0.81 (95% CI 0.77, 0.85)]. Using data from 182 AAV patients to validate the model gave a C-statistic of 0.61.

conclusionAnti-PR3 ANCA positivity, lower serum creatinine and cardiovascular system involvement are all associated with an increased risk of relapse, and a combination of these risk factors can be used to predict the individualised risk of relapse. In order to produce a clinically useful model to stratify risk, we need to identify more risk factors, with a focus on robust biomarkers.

Indexed as

ANCAimmunosuppressionmaintenancerelapsevasculitis

Identifiers

PMID34476335
PMCPMC8407598

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.