ArticleThe British journal of psychiatry : the journal of mental science2021
Using epidemiological evidence to forecast population need for early treatment programmes in mental health: a generalisable Bayesian prediction methodology applied to and validated for first-episode psychosis in England.
Article in The British journal of psychiatry : the journal of mental science, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The proportion of people with a first episode of psychosis admitted to hospital at initial presentation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Psychological medicine · 2025Pooled it
- Early Intervention in Psychosis services: A systematic review and narrative synthesis of the barriers and facilitators to implementation.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2021Pooled it
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- Article
- The impact of socioeconomic factors on the incidence and characteristics of first-episode psychosis.Epidemiology and psychiatric sciences · 2025Article
- Reimagining psychosis prevention: responding to the accessibility issues of At-Risk Mental State (ARMS) services through a selective public health approach.BJPsych bulletin · 2025Article
- A tutorial on the what, why, and how of Bayesian analysis: Estimating mood and anxiety disorder prevalence using a Canadian data linkage study.PLOS mental health · 2025Article
- Implementing and Evaluating a National Integrated Digital Registry and Clinical Decision Support System in Early Intervention in Psychosis Services (Early Psychosis Informatics Into Care): Co-Designed Protocol.JMIR research protocols · 2024Article
- The social determinants of mental health and disorder: evidence, prevention and recommendations.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2024Article
- Some priorities in targeting social determinants to achieve prevention of mental disorders.World psychiatry : official journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA) · 2024Article
- Social Deprivation and Population Density Trajectories Before and After Psychotic Disorder Diagnosis.JAMA psychiatry · 2023Article
- Predictors of positive patient-reported outcomes from 'Early Intervention in Psychosis': a national cross-sectional study.BMJ mental health · 2023Article
- Predictors of positive outcomes from 'Early Intervention in Psychosis': protocol for a national retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2023Article
- Reading Between the Lines: A Pursuit of Estimating the Population Prevalence of Mental Illness Using Multiple Data Sources.Canadian journal of psychiatry. Revue canadienne de psychiatrie · 2022Article
- Neighborhood-Level Predictors of Age-at-First-Diagnosis of Psychotic Disorders: A Swedish Register-Based Cohort Study.Schizophrenia bulletin open · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Background: Mental health policy makers require evidence-based information to optimise effective care provision based on local need, but tools are unavailable. Aims: To develop and validate a population-level prediction model for need for early intervention in psychosis (EIP) care for first-episode psychosis (FEP) in England up to 2025, based on epidemiological evidence and demographic projections. Method: We used Bayesian Poisson regression to model small-area-level variation in FEP incidence for people aged 16-64 years. We compared six candidate models, validated against observed National Health Service FEP data in 2017. Our best-fitting model predicted annual incidence case-loads for EIP services in England up to 2025, for probable FEP, treatment in EIP services, initial assessment by EIP services and referral to EIP services for 'suspected psychosis'. Forecasts were stratified by gender, age and ethnicity, at national and Clinical Commissioning Group levels. Results: A model with age, gender, ethnicity, small-area-level deprivation, social fragmentation and regional cannabis use provided best fit to observed new FEP cases at national and Clinical Commissioning Group levels in 2017 (predicted 8112, 95% CI 7623-8597; observed 8038, difference of 74 [0.92%]). By 2025, the model forecasted 11 067 new treated cases per annum (95% CI 10383-11740). For every 10 new treated cases, 21 and 23 people would be assessed by and referred to EIP services for suspected psychosis, respectively. Conclusions: Our evidence-based methodology provides an accurate, validated tool to inform clinical provision of EIP services about future population need for care, based on local variation of major social determinants of psychosis.
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