ArticleBMC public health2021
Current status of premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4: a population-based study in northeast China, 2004-2017.
Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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6 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- Population aging and changes in mortality from four major noncommunicable diseases in Suzhou, China: a population-based study from 2000 to 2020.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Premature mortality projection for cardiovascular diseases to 2030: a sub-national evaluation towards the SDG 3.4 goals in China.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Premature mortality projection for diabetes to 2030: a subnational evaluation towards the Healthy China 2030 Goals.Frontiers of medicine · 2025Article
- Trends, Social Determinants, and Lifestyle Factors Associated With Comorbidity of Diabetes and Kidney Diseases Among Chinese Adults Aged ≥ 45 Years.Journal of diabetes · 2025Observational
- Forecasting global progress in breast cancer control in the context of the sustainable development goals.BMJ global health · 2025Article
- Alterations in the Salivary Microbiome and Metabolism in Patients With Carotid Atherosclerosis from Rural Northeast China.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2024Article
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11 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimAccording to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4, premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus, collectively referred to as NCD4) should achieve a minimum decline of 33% in 2030 relative to 2015. This remains a challenge for China. This study aimed to evaluate the current status and progress towards this target in Liaoning Province, one of the three provinces in northeast China.
methodsWe calculated the premature mortality rates (PMRs) per year and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) from NCD4 using mortality data between 2004 and 2017. The trend was analyzed in the whole population, as well as in subpopulations of gender (male/female) and inhabiting area (urban/rural). PMRs from NCD4 for 2030 were projected by fitting a linear regression based on the current trend, which was identified by a Joinpoint model.
findingsIn the whole population, only chronic respiratory diseases showed a significant decline (AAPC: - 6.5%, p < 0.05), while only cancer showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 1.3%, p < 0.05); taken together, NCD4 showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 0.6%, p < 0.05). In the subpopulations, while males showed a significant increase in NCD4 (AAPC: + 1.5%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: + 1.7%, p < 0.05), cancer (AAPC: + 1.8%, p < 0.05), and diabetes mellitus (AAPC: + 4.2%, p < 0.05), females showed a significant decline in NCD4 (AAPC: - 1.2%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: - 1.8%, p < 0.05), diabetes mellitus (AAPC: - 2.1%, p < 0.05), but showed a mild increase in cancer (AAPC: + 0.5%, p > 0.05). A comparative analysis of the projected PMRs for 2030 with the 2015 levels revealed that only chronic respiratory diseases are expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4, apart from in the urban male subpopulation.
conclusionExcept for chronic respiratory diseases, NCD4 cannot be expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4 in the whole population of Liaoning Province. Under these circumstances, special attention should be paid to reducing the risks of cancer and providing preventative interventions for men.
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