Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34466794›Full record

ArticleEClinicalMedicine2021

Development and validation of a risk calculator for major mood disorders among the offspring of bipolar parents using information collected in routine clinical practice.

Charles D G Keown-Stoneman, Sarah M Goodday, Martin Preisig, Caroline Vandeleur, Enrique Castelao, Paul Grof, Julie Horrocks, Nathan King, Anne Duffy

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in EClinicalMedicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
0.9field-weighted citation impact, top 27% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
  2. Review
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.

Charles D G Keown-StonemanApplied Health Research Centre (AHRC), Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute of St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Sarah M GooddayDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Martin PreisigPsychopathology Research Center, Department of Psychiatry, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne. Lausanne, Switzerland.
Caroline VandeleurPsychopathology Research Center, Department of Psychiatry, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne. Lausanne, Switzerland.
Enrique CastelaoPsychopathology Research Center, Department of Psychiatry, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne. Lausanne, Switzerland.
Paul GrofMood Disorders Centre of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Julie HorrocksDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Guelph University, Ontario, Canada.
Nathan KingDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Queen's University, Ontario, Canada.
Anne DuffyDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
University of Lausanne · CHQueen's University · CASt. Michael's Hospital · CAUniversity of Guelph · CAUniversity of Oxford · GBUniversity of Toronto · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundFamily history is a significant risk factor for bipolar disorders (BD), but the magnitude of risk varies considerably between individuals within and across families. Accurate risk estimation may increase motivation to reduce modifiable risk exposures and identify individuals appropriate for monitoring over the peak risk period. Our objective was to develop and independently replicate an individual risk calculator for bipolar spectrum disorders among the offspring of BD parents using data collected in routine clinical practice.

methodsData from the longitudinal Canadian High-Risk Offspring cohort study collected from 1996 to 2020 informed the development of a 5 and 10-year risk calculator using parametric time-to-event models with a cure fraction and a generalized gamma distribution. The calculator was then externally validated using data from the Lausanne-Geneva High-Risk Offspring cohort study collected from 1996 to 2020. A time-varying C-index by age in years was used to estimate the probability that the model correctly classified risk. Bias corrected estimates and 95% confidence limits were derived using a jackknife resampling approach.

findingsThe primary outcome was age of onset of a major mood disorder. The risk calculator was most accurate at classifying risk in mid to late adolescence in the Canadian cohort (

interpretationFindings suggest that this model may be a useful clinical tool in routine practice for improved individualized risk estimation of bipolar spectrum disorders among the adolescent offspring of a BD parent; however, risk estimation in younger high-risk offspring is less accurate, perhaps reflecting the evolving nature of psychopathology in early childhood. Based on external validation with a Swiss cohort, the risk calculator may not be as predictive in more heterogenous high-risk populations.

fundingThe Canadian High-Risk Study has been funded by consecutive operating grants from the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, currently CIHR PJT Grant 152796 he Lausanne-Geneva high-risk study was and is supported by five grants from the Swiss National Foundation (#3200-040,677, #32003B-105,969, #32003B-118,326, #3200-049,746 and #3200-061,974), three grants from the Swiss National Foundation for the National Centres of Competence in Research project "The Synaptic Bases of Mental Diseases" (#125,759, #158,776, and #51NF40 - 185,897), and a grant from GlaxoSmithKline Clinical Genetics.

Identifiers

PMID34466794
PMCPMC8382986
OpenAlexW3196079983

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.