ArticleBMC rheumatology2021
Longitudinal development of incident gout from low-normal baseline serum urate concentrations: individual participant data analysis.
Article in BMC rheumatology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06622603 (A Prospective, Multicenter, Randomized Investigator Initiative Clinical Trial Study on the Effects of Febuxostat Dose Tapering in Gout Patients Optimally Controlled for 5 Years or More), which is not on this map. Cited by 4 papers.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
A Prospective, Multicenter, Randomized Investigator Initiative Clinical Trial Study on the Effects of Febuxostat Dose Tapering in Gout Patients Optimally Controlled for 5 Years or More
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 0 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review
- Explainable Clinical Decision Support for Metabolic Index Prediction in Gout Patients Using GA-Optimized Ensemble Learning Models.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- A Lipid- and Inflammation-Related Metabolite Risk Score Predicts Incident Gout Among Individuals With Hyperuricemia: A Prospective Cohort Study.Clinical rheumatology · 2026Article
- Normal serum uric acid gout: a neglected and challenging condition.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionElevated serum urate (SU) concentration is the central risk factor for the development of gout. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence of gout in people with low and normal SU levels (< 7.00 mg/dL).
methodsLongitudinal cohort data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA), and both the Original and Offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) were used to determine incident gout by baseline SU over 3, 5, 10, 12 and 15 year periods. A Cox proportional hazards model with covariables of age, gender, ethnicity, and cohort was calculated to report the hazard ratios (HR) for incident gout.
resultsThe incidence of gout at 15 years for a baseline SU < 4.00 mg/dL was 0.59%, 4.00-4.49 mg/dL was 1.28%, 4.50-4.99 mg/dL was 0.86%, 5.00-5.49 mg/dL was 0.94%, 5.50-5.99 mg/dL was 1.52%, 6.00-6.49 mg/dL was 2.91%, 6.50-6.99 mg/dL was 3.2%, and > 7.00 mg/dL was 12.2%. In an adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, compared to the referent baseline SU < 4.00 mg/dL, there was a non-significant increase in incident gout for baseline SU bands between 4.00-5.49 mg/dL, whereas incident gout was significantly increased for SU 5.50-5.99 mg/dL (HR 2.60), 6.00-6.49 mg/dL (HR 3.70), 6.50-6.99 mg/dL (HR 5.24) and > 7.00 mg/dL (HR 18.62).
conclusionA baseline SU of 5.50 mg/dL or more is a risk factor for development of gout over 15 years. However, incident gout does occur over time in a small proportion of people with lower baseline SU levels.
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