Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34448704›Full record

ArticleJournal of medical Internet research2021

Predicting Kidney Graft Survival Using Machine Learning Methods: Prediction Model Development and Feature Significance Analysis Study.

Syed Asil Ali Naqvi, Karthik Tennankore, Amanda Vinson, Patrice C Roy, Syed Sibte Raza Abidi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of medical Internet research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Dynamic Risk Prediction of Graft Failure after Deceased Donor Kidney Transplant.Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN · 2026
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  9. Assessing Deceased-Donor Kidneys Through Posttransplant Survival Prediction Algorithms.American journal of kidney diseases : the official journal of the National Kidney Foundation · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Syed Asil Ali NaqviDepartment of Computer Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-1422-3793
Karthik TennankoreDivision of Nephrology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-7919-6709
Amanda VinsonDivision of Nephrology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-9345-5252
Patrice C RoyDepartment of Computer Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-8635-0305
Syed Sibte Raza AbidiDepartment of Computer Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-3075-7736

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundKidney transplantation is the optimal treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease. Short- and long-term kidney graft survival is influenced by a number of donor and recipient factors. Predicting the success of kidney transplantation is important for optimizing kidney allocation.

objectiveThe aim of this study was to predict the risk of kidney graft failure across three temporal cohorts (within 1 year, within 5 years, and after 5 years following a transplant) based on donor and recipient characteristics. We analyzed a large data set comprising over 50,000 kidney transplants covering an approximate 20-year period.

methodsWe applied machine learning-based classification algorithms to develop prediction models for the risk of graft failure for three different temporal cohorts. Deep learning-based autoencoders were applied for data dimensionality reduction, which improved the prediction performance. The influence of features on graft survival for each cohort was studied by investigating a new nonoverlapping patient stratification approach.

resultsOur models predicted graft survival with area under the curve scores of 82% within 1 year, 69% within 5 years, and 81% within 17 years. The feature importance analysis elucidated the varying influence of clinical features on graft survival across the three different temporal cohorts.

conclusionsIn this study, we applied machine learning to develop risk prediction models for graft failure that demonstrated a high level of prediction performance. Acknowledging that these models performed better than those reported in the literature for existing risk prediction tools, future studies will focus on how best to incorporate these prediction models into clinical care algorithms to optimize the long-term health of kidney recipients.

Indexed as

Graft SurvivalKidney TransplantationHumansKidneyMachine LearningTissue Donorsdimensionality reductionfeature sensitivity analysiskidney transplantationmachine learningpredictive modelingsurvival prediction

Identifiers

PMID34448704
PMCPMC8433864

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.