Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34447984›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2022

Dynamical Modeling as a Tool for Inferring Causation.

Sarah F Ackley, Justin Lessler, M Maria Glymour

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
19.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  6. Estimation of age-stratified contact rates during the COVID-19 pandemic using a novel inference algorithm.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Sarah F Ackley
Justin Lessler
M Maria Glymour

Funding

Closing the gap between observational research and randomized trials for prevention of Alzheimer's Disease and dementiaR01AG057869 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI GRAFF, REBECCA ELIZABETH, POWER, MELINDA C · 2018 to 2022
$3.9M
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG057869
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Dynamical models, commonly used in infectious disease epidemiology, are formal mathematical representations of time-changing systems or processes. For many chronic disease epidemiologists, the link between dynamical models and predominant causal inference paradigms is unclear. In this commentary, we explain the use of dynamical models for representing causal systems and the relevance of dynamical models for causal inference. In certain simple settings, dynamical modeling and conventional statistical methods (e.g., regression-based methods) are equivalent, but dynamical modeling has advantages over conventional statistical methods for many causal inference problems. Dynamical models can be used to transparently encode complex biological knowledge, interference and spillover, effect modification, and variables that influence each other in continuous time. As our knowledge of biological and social systems and access to computational resources increases, there will be growing utility for a variety of mathematical modeling tools in epidemiology.

Indexed as

CausalityEpidemiologic MethodsModels, TheoreticalHumansTime Factorsagent-based modelingcausal inferencedynamical modelingmechanistic modelingstatistics

Identifiers

PMID34447984
PMCPMC8897986
OpenAlexW3194691687

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.