Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34442160›Full record

ArticleHealthcare (Basel, Switzerland)2021

A Bayes Decision Rule to Assist Policymakers during a Pandemic.

Kang-Hua Cao, Paul Damien, Chi-Keung Woo, Jay Zarnikau

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Kang-Hua CaoDepartment of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China.
Paul DamienDepartment of Information, Risk and Operations Management, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas in Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
Chi-Keung WooDepartment of Asian and Policy Studies, The Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Jay ZarnikauDepartment of Economics, University of Texas in Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A new decision rule based on net benefit per capita is proposed and exemplified with the aim of assisting policymakers in deciding whether to lockdown or reopen an economy-fully or partially-amidst a pandemic. Bayesian econometric models using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to quantify this rule, which is illustrated via several sensitivity analyses. While we use COVID-19 data from the United States to demonstrate the ideas, our approach is invariant to the choice of pandemic and/or country. The actions suggested by our decision rule are consistent with the closing and reopening of the economies made by policymakers in Florida, Texas, and New York; these states were selected to exemplify the methodology since they capture the broad spectrum of COVID-19 outcomes in the U.S.

Indexed as

Bayesian inferencedecisionsemploymentmortality ratesnet benefitsensitivity analysis

Identifiers

PMID34442160
PMCPMC8391194

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.