Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34437714›Full record

ArticleBiometrics2023

Elastic priors to dynamically borrow information from historical data in clinical trials.

Liyun Jiang, Lei Nie, Ying Yuan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Biometrics, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  7. An E-value-Informed Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Hybrid Controlled Trials.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026
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  10. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Liyun JiangResearch Center of Biostatistics and Computational Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China.
Lei NieCenter for Drug Evaluation and Research, Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Silver Spring, Maryland, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7791-9395
Ying YuanDepartment of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3163-480X

Funding

Tumor Evolution and Metastasis ProgramP30CA016672 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI Scott Kopetz · 1985 to 2026
$290.8M
Tropism Enhanced Oncolytic Adenovirus for the Treatment of Brain TumorsP50CA127001 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI Juan Fueyo · 2008 to 2026
$41.2M
Project 3: Inhibiting Oxidative Phosphorylation in Pancreatic CancerP50CA221707 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI KOPETZ, SCOTT, MAITRA, ANIRBAN · 2019 to 2023
$11.0M
U.T. M. D. Anderson Cancer Center SPORE in Ovarian CancerP50CA217685 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF TX MD ANDERSON CAN CTR · PI SOOD, ANIL K · 2017 to 2021
$7.9M
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA016672NCI NIH HHS P50 CA127001NCI NIH HHS P50CA127001NCI NIH HHS P50 CA217685NCI NIH HHS P50CA217685NCI NIH HHS P50 CA221707NCI NIH HHS P50CA221707
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Use of historical data and real-world evidence holds great potential to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. One major challenge is to effectively borrow information from historical data while maintaining a reasonable type I error and minimal bias. We propose the elastic prior approach to address this challenge. Unlike existing approaches, this approach proactively controls the behavior of information borrowing and type I errors by incorporating a well-known concept of clinically significant difference through an elastic function, defined as a monotonic function of a congruence measure between historical data and trial data. The elastic function is constructed to satisfy a set of prespecified criteria such that the resulting prior will strongly borrow information when historical and trial data are congruent, but refrain from information borrowing when historical and trial data are incongruent. The elastic prior approach has a desirable property of being information borrowing consistent, that is, asymptotically controls type I error at the nominal value, no matter that historical data are congruent or not to the trial data. Our simulation study that evaluates the finite sample characteristic confirms that, compared to existing methods, the elastic prior has better type I error control and yields competitive or higher power. The proposed approach is applicable to binary, continuous, and survival endpoints.

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalResearch DesignBayes TheoremBiasComputer SimulationSample Sizeadaptive designdynamic information borrowingelastic MAP priorelastic priorhistorical datareal-world data

Identifiers

PMID34437714
PMCPMC11840877

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.