ArticleBMJ open2021
How many infants may have died in low-income and middle-income countries in 2020 due to the economic contraction accompanying the COVID-19 pandemic? Mortality projections based on forecasted declines in economic growth.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Assessing the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality and child mortality in a population cohort of Iganga Mayuge HDSS in Eastern Uganda (2015-2021).Population health metrics · 2025Article
- High immunisation coverage but sporadic outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases: the structural gaps in vaccination uptake in central highlands, Vietnam.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Modest advances, persistent inequalities: child mortality in Brazil from 2010 to 2022.Revista de saude publica · 2025Article
- Article
- Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal, newborn, and child health service coverage in Burkina Faso.Journal of global health · 2024Article
- Causes of Pediatric Deaths in Lusaka, Zambia: A Quantitative Geographic Information Systems Approach.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- An Application of Social Vulnerability Index to Infant Mortality Rates in Ohio Using Geospatial Analysis- A Cross-Sectional Study.Maternal and child health journal · 2024Article
- Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2-related and imputable deaths in children: results from the French pediatric national registry.World journal of pediatrics : WJP · 2024Article
- Association of socioeconomic disadvantage and ethnicity with perinatal neonatal, and infant mortality in Slovakia.BMC public health · 2024Article
- The Impact of Sociodemographic, Macroeconomic, and Health Status and Resources on Infant Mortality Rates in Oman: Evidence from 1980 to 2022.European journal of investigation in health, psychology and education · 2023Article
- Infant Mortality Trends and Determinants in Kazakhstan.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of global development indicators on child mortality.International journal of health geographics · 2023Article
- Article
- Parents' experiences regarding neonatal care during the COVID-19 pandemic: country-specific findings of a multinational survey.BMJ open · 2022Article
- A cross-country analysis of macroeconomic responses to COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter sentiments.PloS one · 2022Article
- Impact of reduced institutional delivery coverage on neonatal survival during the peak of coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in Nepal: Estimates using Lives Saved Tool model.Women's health (London, England)Article
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3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesWhile COVID-19 has a relatively small direct impact on infant mortality, the pandemic is expected to indirectly increase mortality of this vulnerable group in low-income and middle-income countries through its effects on the economy and health system performance. Previous studies projected indirect mortality by modelling how hypothesised disruptions in health services will affect health outcomes. We provide alternative projections, relying on modelling the relationship between aggregate income shocks and mortality.
designWe construct a sample of 5.2 million births by pooling retrospective birth histories reported by women in Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 83 low-income and middle-income countries between 1985 and 2018. We employ regression models with country-specific fixed-effects and flexible time trends to estimate the impact of gross domestic product per capita on infant mortality rate. We then use growth projections by the International Monetary Fund to predict the effect of the economic downturn in 2020 on infant mortality.
resultsWe estimate 267 208 (95% CI 112 000 to 422 415) excess infant deaths in 128 countries, corresponding to a 6.8% (95% CI 2.8% to 10.7%) increase in the total number of infant deaths expected in 2020.
conclusionsThe findings underscore the vulnerability of infants to the negative income shocks such as those imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. While efforts towards prevention and treatment of COVID-19 remain paramount, the global community should also strengthen social safety nets and assure continuity of essential health services.
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