ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2021
The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control: the value and limitations of early models.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Data-driven strategies for model-informed decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2026Pooled it
- Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission: rapid review of evidence from Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- Computational models predicting the early development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden: systematic review, data synthesis, and secondary validation of accuracy.Scientific reports · 2022Pooled it
- Survey on mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics: insights and applications.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Review
- Clustering-based methodology for comparing multi-characteristic epidemiological dynamics with application to COVID-19 epidemiology in Europe.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Contact Observations from an Intensive Care Unit.Scientific data · 2025Article
- A data-driven semi-parametric model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- An adaptive testing strategy for efficient utilization of healthcare resources during an epidemic.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Social Connectedness, Physical Distancing, and Anxiety in Complying with Shelter-In-Place Orders and Advisories during the Once-In-A-Century COVID-19 Pandemic in the US: A Study of Social Media and Internet Users.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Modelling the first wave of COVID-19 in India.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Projecting COVID-19 Cases and Subsequent Hospital Burden in Ohio.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- Mathematical modeling of the impact of Omicron variant on the COVID-19 situation in South Korea.Genomics & informatics · 2022Article
- Exit strategies from lockdowns due to COVID-19: a scoping review.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- A review on COVID-19 transmission, epidemiological features, prevention and vaccination.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population.Viruses · 2022Article
- Impact of close interpersonal contact on COVID-19 incidence: Evidence from 1 year of mobile device data.Science advances · 2022Article
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10 authors.
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Abstract
Mathematical models of epidemics are important tools for predicting epidemic dynamics and evaluating interventions. Yet, because early models are built on limited information, it is unclear how long they will accurately capture epidemic dynamics. Using a stochastic SEIR model of COVID-19 fitted to reported deaths, we estimated transmission parameters at different time points during the first wave of the epidemic (March-June, 2020) in Santa Clara County, California. Although our estimated basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) remained stable from early April to late June (with an overall median of 3.76), our estimated effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) varied from 0.18 to 1.02 in April before stabilizing at 0.64 on 27 May. Between 22 April and 27 May, our model accurately predicted dynamics through June; however, the model did not predict rising summer cases after shelter-in-place orders were relaxed in June, which, in early July, was reflected in cases but not yet in deaths. While models are critical for informing intervention policy early in an epidemic, their performance will be limited as epidemic dynamics evolve. This paper is one of the first to evaluate the accuracy of an early epidemiological compartment model over time to understand the value and limitations of models during unfolding epidemics.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.