ReviewProceedings. Biological sciences2021
Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty.
Review in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Limited capacity for rapid acclimation to marine heatwaves in coastal invertebrates.The Journal of animal ecology · 2026Article
- Regional transcriptomic divergence reveals thermal adaptation mechanisms in the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Synching with seasonality: Predicting roe deer parturition phenology across its distributional range.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
- Phenological Plasticity and Its Temperature-Related Drivers in Common Songbirds Across Europe.Global change biology · 2025Article
- High thermal variation in maximum temperatures invert Brett's heat-invariant rule at fine spatial scales.Ecology · 2025Article
- Environmental Variability Shapes Life History of the World's Birds.Ecology letters · 2025Review
- The predictability of fluctuating environments shapes the thermal tolerance of marine ectotherms and compensates narrow safety margins.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Article
- Developmental temperature, more than long-term evolution, defines thermal tolerance in an estuarine copepod.Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- Intergenerational effects of ocean temperature variation: Early life benefits are short-lived in threespine stickleback.PloS one · 2024Article
- Phenotypic Plasticity Drives Seasonal Thermal Tolerance in a Baltic Copepod.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023Article
- Pacific oysters do not compensate growth retardation following extreme acidification events.Biology letters · 2023Article
- Editorial: Impact of climate change on coastal environmental variability and aquatic physiology.Frontiers in physiology · 2023Article
- Evidence for adaptive morphological plasticity in the Caribbean coral,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- The genetic basis and adult reproductive consequences of developmental thermal plasticity.The Journal of animal ecology · 2022Article
- Loss of transcriptional plasticity but sustained adaptive capacity after adaptation to global change conditions in a marine copepod.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Evolution in changing seas.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Article
- Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Review
- Fluctuating selection and global change: a synthesis and review on disentangling the roles of climate amplitude, predictability and novelty.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A formidable challenge for global change biologists is to predict how natural populations will respond to the emergence of conditions not observed at present, termed novel climates. Popular approaches to predict population vulnerability are based on the expected degree of novelty relative to the amplitude of historical climate fluctuations experienced by a population. Here, we argue that predictions focused on amplitude may be inaccurate because they ignore the predictability of environmental fluctuations in driving patterns of evolution and responses to climate change. To address this disconnect, we review major findings of evolutionary theory demonstrating the conditions under which phenotypic plasticity is likely to evolve in natural populations, and how plasticity decreases population vulnerability to novel environments. We outline key criteria that experimental studies should aim for to effectively test theoretical predictions, while controlling for the degree of climate novelty. We show that such targeted tests of evolutionary theory are rare, with marine systems being overall underrepresented in this venture despite exhibiting unique opportunities to test theory. We conclude that with more robust experimental designs that manipulate both the amplitude and predictability of fluctuations, while controlling for the degree of novelty, we may better predict population vulnerability to climate change.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.