ArticleEpidemics2021
Impacts of K-12 school reopening on the COVID-19 epidemic in Indiana, USA.
Article in Epidemics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemicThe Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Trends in the Use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic, February 2021 to December 2023: A Mixed Methods Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- A modeling study on SARS-CoV-2 transmissions in primary and middle schools in Illinois.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: Modeling the initial Omicron outbreak.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil.Global epidemiology · 2022Article
- Assessing K-12 school reopenings under different COVID-19 Spread scenarios - United States, school year 2020/21: A retrospective modeling study.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential and Policy Changes in South Carolina, February 2020 - January 2021.Disaster medicine and public health preparedness · 2022Article
- Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Designing school reopening in the COVID-19 pre-vaccination period in Bogotá, Colombia: A modeling study.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Evidence-based COVID-19 policy-making in schools.Nature medicine · 2021Article
- The impact of school opening model on SARS-CoV-2 community incidence and mortality.Nature medicine · 2021Observational
- Passing the Test: A Model-Based Analysis of Safe School-Reopening Strategies.Annals of internal medicine · 2021Article
- The Impact of School Opening Model on SARS-CoV-2 Community Incidence and Mortality: A Nationwide Cohort Study.Research square · 2021Article
- Model-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021Article
- A multi-tiered systems of support blueprint for re-opening schools following COVID-19 shutdown.Children and youth services review · 2021Article
- Passing the Test: A model-based analysis of safe school-reopening strategies.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021Article
- Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In the United States, schools closed in March 2020 due to COVID-19 and began reopening in August 2020, despite continuing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In states where in-person instruction resumed at that time, two major unknowns were the capacity at which schools would operate, which depended on the proportion of families opting for remote instruction, and adherence to face-mask requirements in schools, which depended on cooperation from students and enforcement by schools. To determine the impact of these conditions on the statewide burden of COVID-19 in Indiana, we used an agent-based model calibrated to and validated against multiple data types. Using this model, we quantified the burden of COVID-19 on K-12 students, teachers, their families, and the general population under alternative scenarios spanning three levels of school operating capacity (50 %, 75 %, and 100 %) and three levels of face-mask adherence in schools (50 %, 75 %, and 100 %). Under a scenario in which schools operated remotely, we projected 45,579 (95 % CrI: 14,109-132,546) infections and 790 (95 % CrI: 176-1680) deaths statewide between August 24 and December 31. Reopening at 100 % capacity with 50 % face-mask adherence in schools resulted in a proportional increase of 42.9 (95 % CrI: 41.3-44.3) and 9.2 (95 % CrI: 8.9-9.5) times that number of infections and deaths, respectively. In contrast, our results showed that at 50 % capacity with 100 % face-mask adherence, the number of infections and deaths were 22 % (95 % CrI: 16 %-28 %) and 11 % (95 % CrI: 5 %-18 %) higher than the scenario in which schools operated remotely. Within this range of possibilities, we found that high levels of school operating capacity (80-95 %) and intermediate levels of face-mask adherence (40-70 %) resulted in model behavior most consistent with observed data. Together, these results underscore the importance of precautions taken in schools for the benefit of their communities.
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