ArticleBMJ open sport & exercise medicine2021
Not straightforward: modelling non-linearity in training load and injury research.
Article in BMJ open sport & exercise medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Nonlinear association between physical fitness and sports injury risk among Chinese high school students: a cross-sectional study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Long-term trends in the prevalence of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome in South Korea, 2011-2021: a representative longitudinal serial study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Assessing the relationship between training load and injury in ultramarathon runners: a novel approach using Generalised Additive Models.South African journal of sports medicine · 2025Article
- Hamstring injury risk in male professional football: do external training loads play a role?BMJ open sport & exercise medicine · 2025Article
- Critical Fluctuations as an Early Warning Signal of Sports Injuries? A Proof of Concept Using Football Monitoring Data.Sports medicine - open · 2024Article
- Leveraging machine learning to enhance appointment adherence at a novel post-discharge care transition clinic.JAMIA open · 2024Article
- Long-term Prognosis of Patellar Tendinopathy (Jumper's Knee) in Young, Elite Volleyball Players: Tendon Changes 11 Years After Baseline.The American journal of sports medicine · 2024Article
- Painfully ignorant? Impact of gender and aim of training on injuries in climbing.BMJ open sport & exercise medicine · 2024Article
- A new statistical approach to training load and injury risk: separating the acute from the chronic load.Biology of sport · 2024Article
- Injury incidence in male elite youth football players is associated with preceding levels and changes in training load.BMJ open sport & exercise medicine · 2023Article
- A novel approach for sports injury risk prediction: based on time-series image encoding and deep learning.Frontiers in physiology · 2023Article
- Association of Training and Game Loads to Injury Risk in Junior Male Elite Ice Hockey Players: A Prospective Cohort Study.Orthopaedic journal of sports medicine · 2022Article
- Incidence and risk factors of intraoperative periprosthetic femoral fractures during primary total hip arthroplasty: 218,423 cases reported to the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register between 1987 and 2020.Acta orthopaedica · 2022Article
- Assessing the cumulative effect of long-term training load on the risk of injury in team sports.BMJ open sport & exercise medicine · 2022Article
- Not straightforward: modelling non-linearity in training load and injury research.BMJ open sport & exercise medicine · 2021Article
- Elite Junior Australian Football Players With Impaired Wellness Are at Increased Injury Risk at High Loads.Sports healthArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo determine whether the relationship between training load and injury risk is non-linear and investigate ways of handling non-linearity.
methodsWe analysed daily training load and injury data from three cohorts: Norwegian elite U-19 football (n=81, 55% male, mean age 17 years (SD 1)), Norwegian Premier League football (n=36, 100% male, mean age 26 years (SD 4)) and elite youth handball (n=205, 36% male, mean age 17 years (SD 1)). The relationship between session rating of perceived exertion (sRPE) and probability of injury was estimated with restricted cubic splines in mixed-effects logistic regression models. Simulations were carried out to compare the ability of seven methods to model non-linear relationships, using visualisations, root-mean-squared error and coverage of prediction intervals as performance metrics.
resultsNo relationships were identified in the football cohorts; however, a J-shaped relationship was found between sRPE and the probability of injury on the same day for elite youth handball players (p<0.001). In the simulations, the only methods capable of non-linear modelling relationships were the quadratic model, fractional polynomials and restricted cubic splines.
conclusionThe relationship between training load and injury risk should be assumed to be non-linear. Future research should apply appropriate methods to account for non-linearity, such as fractional polynomials or restricted cubic splines. We propose a guide for which method(s) to use in a range of different situations.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.