Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34418974›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021

A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú.

Julianne Meisner, Lauren A Frisbie, César V Munayco, Patricia J García, César P Cárcamo, Cory W Morin, David M Pigott, Peter M Rabinowitz

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Julianne MeisnerDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. meisnerj@uw.edu.
Lauren A FrisbieCenter for One Health Research, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
César V MunaycoCentro Nacional de Epidemiología, Prevención y Control de Enfermedades, Peruvian Ministry of Health, Lima, Peru.
Patricia J GarcíaSchool of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
César P CárcamoSchool of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
Cory W Morin *Center for Health and the Global Environment, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
David M Pigott *Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Peter M Rabinowitz *Center for One Health Research, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundA proactive approach to preventing and responding to emerging infectious diseases is critical to global health security. We present a three-stage approach to modeling the spatial distribution of outbreak vulnerability to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú.

methodsExtending a framework developed for modeling hemorrhagic fever vulnerability in Africa, we modeled outbreak vulnerability in three stages: index case potential (stage 1), outbreak receptivity (stage 2), and epidemic potential (stage 3), stratifying scores on season and El Niño events. Subsequently, we evaluated the validity of these scores using dengue surveillance data and spatial models.

resultsWe found high validity for stage 1 and 2 scores, but not stage 3 scores. Vulnerability was highest in Selva Baja and Costa, and in summer and during El Niño events, with index case potential (stage 1) being high in both regions but outbreak receptivity (stage 2) being generally high in Selva Baja only.

conclusionsStage 1 and 2 scores are well-suited to predicting outbreaks of Ae. aegypti-vectored diseases in this setting, however stage 3 scores appear better suited to diseases with direct human-to-human transmission. To prevent outbreaks, measures to detect index cases should be targeted to both Selva Baja and Costa, while Selva Baja should be prioritized for healthcare system strengthening. Successful extension of this framework from hemorrhagic fevers in Africa to an arbovirus in Latin America indicates its broad utility for outbreak and pandemic preparedness and response activities.

Indexed as

AedesArbovirusesDengueEpidemicsAnimalsHumansInsect VectorsMosquito VectorsDengueEpidemicOutbreakPerúSpatial epidemiologyVectorborne diseases

Identifiers

PMID34418974
PMCPMC8379593

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.