Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34417121›Full record

ReviewPaediatric respiratory reviews2021

Vaccines and variants: Modelling insights into emerging issues in COVID-19 epidemiology.

Jamie M Caldwell, Xuan Le, Lorin McIntosh, Michael T Meehan, Samson Ogunlade, Romain Ragonnet, Genevieve K O'Neill, James M Trauer, Emma S McBryde

Open access · greenAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Paediatric respiratory reviews, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed
2.2field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 39 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  4. Review
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  13. Modelling herd immunity requirements in Queensland: impact of vaccination effectiveness, hesitancy and variants of SARS-CoV-2.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022
    Article
  14. Projecting the Pandemic Trajectory through Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
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  18. SAR-CoV-2 infection, emerging new variants and the role of activation induced cytidine deaminase (AID) in lasting immunity.Saudi pharmaceutical journal : SPJ : the official publication of the Saudi Pharmaceutical Society · 2021
    Article
  19. The accumulating consequences of COVID-19 in children.Paediatric respiratory reviews · 2021
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Jamie M CaldwellDepartment of Biology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA.
Xuan LeEpidemiological Modelling Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Lorin McIntoshEpidemiological Modelling Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Michael T MeehanAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.
Samson OgunladeAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.
Romain RagonnetEpidemiological Modelling Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Genevieve K O'NeillEpidemiological Modelling Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
James M TrauerEpidemiological Modelling Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
Emma S McBrydeAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia. Electronic address: emma.mcbryde@jcu.edu.au.
Monash University · AUAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine · AUUniversity of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mathematical modelling has played a pivotal role in understanding the epidemiology of and guiding public health responses to the ongoing coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we review the role of epidemiological models in understanding evolving epidemic characteristics, including the effects of vaccination and Variants of Concern (VoC). We highlight ways in which models continue to provide important insights, including (1) calculating the herd immunity threshold and evaluating its limitations; (2) verifying that nascent vaccines can prevent severe disease, infection, and transmission but may be less efficacious against VoC; (3) determining optimal vaccine allocation strategies under efficacy and supply constraints; and (4) determining that VoC are more transmissible and lethal than previously circulating strains, and that immune escape may jeopardize vaccine-induced herd immunity. Finally, we explore how models can help us anticipate and prepare for future stages of COVID-19 epidemiology (and that of other diseases) through forecasts and scenario projections, given current uncertainties and data limitations.

Indexed as

Communicable Disease ControlCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesHumansModels, TheoreticalPandemicsPneumonia, ViralSARS-CoV-2COVID-19 VaccinesCOVID-19Educational aimsFuture directions for researchHerd immunity thresholdMathematical modellingVaccine allocationVariants of Concern

Identifiers

PMID34417121
PMCPMC8294600
OpenAlexW3186070015

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.