Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34410027›Full record

ArticleGlobal change biology2021

Increases in extreme heat stress in domesticated livestock species during the twenty-first century.

Philip Thornton, Gerald Nelson, Dianne Mayberry, Mario Herrero

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Global change biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 56 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
56citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

56 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. DietaryAntioxidants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
    Article
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  8. Article
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  10. Review
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  14. Article
  15. Article
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  17. Climate Change and Livestock Welfare in the Alps: A Comprehensive Review.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025
    Review
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Philip ThorntonCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya.ORCID 0000-0002-1854-0182
Gerald NelsonUniversity of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3626-1221
Dianne MayberryCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), St Lucia, Qld, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-1584-8066
Mario HerreroCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), St Lucia, Qld, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-7741-5090

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to have major impacts on domesticated livestock, including increased heat stress in animals in both intensive and extensive livestock systems. We estimate the changes in the number of extreme heat stress days per year for animals raised outdoors that can be expected in the major domesticated animal species (cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, and pigs) across the globe during this century. We used the temperature humidity index as a proxy for heat stress, calculated using temperature and relative humidity data collated from an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model output for mid and end century. We estimate changes in the proportions of different livestock species that may be at increased risk of extreme heat stress under two contrasting greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results are discussed in relation to changes in the suitability of different climate conditions for domesticated livestock during the current century. We find that by end century, extreme heat stress risk is projected to increase for all livestock species in many parts of the tropics and some of the temperate zones, and to become climatically more widespread, compared to 2000. Although adaptation options exist for both intensive and extensive livestock production systems, the increasing pervasiveness of extreme heat stress risk in the future will seriously challenge the viability of outdoor livestock keeping, particularly in the lower latitudes in lower and middle-income countries where the costs of adaptation may be challenging to address.

Indexed as

Extreme HeatHeat Stress DisordersAnimalsCattleClimate ChangeHeat-Shock ResponseHot TemperatureLivestockSheepSwinecattlechickensCMIP6goatspigssheepsuitabilitytemperature humidity index

Identifiers

PMID34410027
PMCPMC9292043

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.