ArticleJNCI cancer spectrum2021
Projecting the Prevalence and Costs of Metastatic Breast Cancer From 2015 through 2030.
Article in JNCI cancer spectrum, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Breast cancer drugs: FDA approval, development time, efficacy, clinical benefits, innovation, trials, endpoints, quality of life, value, and price.Breast cancer (Tokyo, Japan) · 2024Pooled it
- Supervised Exercise for Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer: A Cost-Utility Analysis Alongside the PREFERABLE-EFFECT Randomized Controlled Trial.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2025Trial
- Quality of Life in Adults With Metastatic Breast Cancer: The Impact of Between- and Within-Person Changes in Symptoms and Positive Affect.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Which quality of life issues are important to patients with metastatic breast cancer: Phase 1 and 2 development of European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer metastatic breast cancer module (EORTC QLQ-MBR).Breast (Edinburgh, Scotland) · 2026Article
- Article
- Evaluation of Experiences With Ecological Momentary Assessment Among Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer: Qualitative Study.JMIR cancer · 2026Observational
- Qualitative Interviews on the Experience of Orally vs. Intramuscularly Administered Endocrine Therapy for Advanced Breast Cancer: Patient and Healthcare Provider Perspectives.Oncology and therapy · 2026Article
- Healthcare costs and resource use in advanced breast cancer at the end of life: a register study.Acta oncologica (Stockholm, Sweden) · 2026Article
- Estimating the number of people living with metastatic breast cancer: a population-based retrospective cohort study using linked health data.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Survival Disparities in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer.JCO oncology practice · 2026Article
- Genetic insights into the timing of metastasis: a secondary analysis of the Count Me In metastatic breast cancer cohort.Frontiers in cell and developmental biology · 2026Article
- Impact of Delaying Disease Recurrence on Economic Burden in Patients with HER2+ Early-Stage Breast Cancer (eBC).ClinicoEconomics and outcomes research : CEOR · 2026Article
- Metastatic Recurrence of Breast Cancer by Stage and Molecular Profile: A Population-Based Study Among Italian Women.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Tumor biology and access to care and metastatic breast cancer outcomes.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Article
- Improving equitable access to comprehensive care for people with advanced breast cancer: a global expert review and call-to-action for 2025-2035 (Goal 9).Breast (Edinburgh, Scotland) · 2025Review
- Physical activity interventions for women with metastatic breast cancer: a systematic review of published and ongoing randomised controlled trials.Journal of cancer survivorship : research and practice · 2025Review
- Feasibility and Acceptability of a Positive Psychological Intervention for Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer: Pre-Post Pilot Study.JMIR formative research · 2025Article
- First-line cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 inhibitors in combination with an aromatase inhibitor for HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer: A real-world cost-effectiveness assessment in a US Medicare-eligible population.Journal of managed care & specialty pharmacy · 2025Article
- Metastatic Breast Cancer mHealth App to Promote Patient-Provider Communication: Protocol for a Usability and Satisfaction Study.JMIR research protocols · 2025Article
- Time and location of specialty palliative care for women dying with metastatic breast cancer.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Article
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7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Background: This study projected the number of metastatic breast cancer (mBC) cases and costs (medical and productivity) attributable to mBC through 2030 among 3 age groups: younger (aged 18-44 years), midlife (aged 45-64 years), and older women (aged 65 years and older). Methods: We developed a stock/flow model in which women enter the mBC population at initial diagnosis (de novo stage IV) or through progression of an earlier-stage cancer. Women exit the mBC population through death. Input parameters by age and phase of treatment came from the US Census, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and peer-reviewed literature. Results: In 2030, we estimated there would be 246 194 prevalent cases of mBC, an increase of 54.8% from the 2015 estimate of 158 997. We estimated total costs (medical and productivity) of mBC across all age groups and phases of care were $63.4 billion (95% sensitivity range = $59.4-$67.4 billion) in 2015 and would increase to $152.4 billion (95% sensitivity range = $111.6-$220.4 billion) in 2030, an increase of 140%. Trends in estimated costs were higher for younger and midlife women than for older women. Conclusions: The cost of mBC could increase substantially in the coming decade, especially among younger and midlife women. Although accounting for trends in incidence, progression, and survival, our model did not attempt to forecast structural changes such as technological innovations in breast cancer treatment and health-care delivery reforms. These findings can motivate early detection activities, direct value-driven mBC treatment, and provide a useful baseline against which to measure the effect of prevention and treatment efforts.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.