ArticlePloS one2021
Data driven high resolution modeling and spatial analyses of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating the effect of self-protection on transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany in 2021: a modelling study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Graph neural network surrogates to leverage mechanistic expert knowledge towards reliable and immediate pandemic response.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak.PloS one · 2026Article
- The spatiotemporal dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe: time-series clustering maps 5 distinct trajectories to spatial patterns.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field.PloS one · 2025Article
- Novel travel time aware metapopulation models and multi-layer waning immunity for late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 lockdown effect to survive in the US counties using ANN.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Article
- Evaluating Spatial, Cause-Specific and Seasonal Effects of Excess Mortality Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Germany, 2020.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2023Article
- Spatial Distribution of COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Associated Risk Factors in Health Insurance Data Using Bayesian Spatial Modelling.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Fine-scale variation in the effect of national border on COVID-19 spread: A case study of the Saxon-Czech border region.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2023Article
- An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020-2021.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Modeling approaches for early warning and monitoring of pandemic situations as well as decision support.Frontiers in public health · 2022Review
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread around the world with over 100 million infections to date, and currently many countries are fighting the second wave of infections. With neither sufficient vaccination capacity nor effective medication, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the measure of choice. However, NPIs place a great burden on society, the mental health of individuals, and economics. Therefore the cost/benefit ratio must be carefully balanced and a target-oriented small-scale implementation of these NPIs could help achieve this balance. To this end, we introduce a modified SEIRD-class compartment model and parametrize it locally for all 412 districts of Germany. The NPIs are modeled at district level by time varying contact rates. This high spatial resolution makes it possible to apply geostatistical methods to analyse the spatial patterns of the pandemic in Germany and to compare the results of different spatial resolutions. We find that the modified SEIRD model can successfully be fitted to the COVID-19 cases in German districts, states, and also nationwide. We propose the correlation length as a further measure, besides the weekly incidence rates, to describe the current situation of the epidemic.
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